Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:43:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EA 0xeae4…5c60 sports 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (61 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$9 (+2%) realized −$54 · open +$63
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%15W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day61.0pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$126now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% +$20
crypto 45% −$136
other 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (61 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-27.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -20.4% -27.9% 43% 43% -46.9%
≤30d 35 -20.4% -27.9% 43% 43% -46.9%
≤90d 35 -20.4% -27.9% 43% 43% -46.9%
all 35 -20.4% -27.9% 43% 43% -46.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover61.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.9% 43% -46.9%
10% ← realistic here -34.8% 40% -52.0%
15% -41.1% 37% -56.6%
20% -46.9% 31% -60.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -41% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -41% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$14 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$126
Realized−$54
Unrealized+$63
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses15 / 20
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage1d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day61.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score No 21¢ 42¢ $63 $126 +$63 (+100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $12 +$8 +73%
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) Jun 20 $21 +$9 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 20 $20 −$19 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 20 $7 +$8 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 20 $13 +$12 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 20 $60 −$57 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 20 $37 −$36 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 20 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 20 $19 −$18 -96%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 20 $10 +$11 +118%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $35 −$34 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Draw at halftime? Jun 20 $12 −$12 -98%
United States vs. Australia: Total Corners Odd or Even? Jun 20 $5 +$4 +93%
United States vs. Australia: Draw at halftime? Jun 20 $6 +$4 +73%
United States vs. Australia: Team to Take First Corner Jun 20 $11 +$5 +46%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Team to Take First Corner Jun 20 $13 +$7 +56%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? Jun 20 $12 +$8 +73%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 19 $8 −$8 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$2 +17%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins Jun 19 $9 −$9 -98%
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Jun 19 $6 −$6 -98%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $9 −$9 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $15 −$14 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5PM ET Jun 19 $17 +$4 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 19 $3 +$5 +173%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $9 −$9 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $10 +$5 +51%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 19 $10 −$4 -44%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $5 $0 -3%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 21¢ $64 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $60 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $37 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $19 3h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves SELL Atlanta Braves 91¢ $21 3h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 9¢ $4 3h
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) BUY Haiti 69¢ $21 3h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 57¢ $12 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $126.00 · official $126.00 (match) · 70 history records