Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:38:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
EA 0xeae4…4434 other 116 markets active 2h ago coverage 93d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate11%12W / 102L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$195per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$151now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$13
14 days+$12
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% −$5
politics 22% −$6
sports 5% +$19
economics 5% −$1
world 4% −$1
culture 3% −$1
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +27.8% +15.6% 20% 20% -5.7%
≤30d 19 +7.3% -3.0% 16% 5% -9.0%
≤90d 111 +0.3% -9.3% 11% 7% -9.5%
all 114 +0.3% -9.3% 11% 7% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 7% -9.5%
10% -18.0% 7% -18.2%
15% -25.9% 6% -26.1%
20% -33.1% 6% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×9.2 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$151
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses12 / 102
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)114 / 116
History coverage93d
Avg bet$195
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 114 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $115 $115 +$0 (+0%)
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 19 $10 +$13 +140%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $198 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $43 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $31 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $29 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $34 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 10 $405 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $32 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $36 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 03 $34 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? Jun 02 $53 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? Jun 02 $70 $0 +0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $407 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $350 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 29 $42 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $41 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $228 $0 -0%
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 22 $25 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 18 $399 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 17 $186 $0 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 17 $194 $0 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 16 $189 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $566 −$1 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $895 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $581 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $609 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $373 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 10 $195 $0 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 09 $187 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 09 $192 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 08 $392 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 07 $405 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 06 $309 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 05 $187 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $198 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $205 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 03 $193 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $385 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $382 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in April? May 01 $17 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 01 $204 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 29 $207 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $202 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $542 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $199 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $361 $0 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Apr 18 $197 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $191 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $199 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $35 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY Chicago White Sox 41¢ $10 23h
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $36 24h
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $36 26h
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $43 42h
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $43 46h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $31 2d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $31 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $115 3d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $29 6d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $29 6d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $34 7d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $34 7d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $32 8d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $32 8d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $31 9d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $32 9d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $36 13d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $36 13d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $42 14d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $42 14d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $34 15d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $34 15d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $39 18d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $39 19d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $38 19d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $38 20d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $42 20d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $42 20d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $53 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $150.94 · official $150.94 (match) · 331 history records