Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:07:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EA 0xeae1…56d0 crypto 586 markets active 1d ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$58 (-3%) realized −$58 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate70%413W / 173L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day33.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$18
14 days−$98
30 days−$83
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$83
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 146 -8.5% -17.3% 65% 58% -16.5%
≤30d 586 -3.8% -13.0% 70% 56% -13.2%
≤90d 586 -3.8% -13.0% 70% 56% -13.2%
all 586 -3.8% -13.0% 70% 56% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.0% 56% -13.2%
10% ← realistic here -21.3% 40% -21.5%
15% -28.9% 28% -29.1%
20% -35.9% 18% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$58
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses413 / 173
Open positions0
Markets (closed)586 / 586
History coverage19d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day33.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 586 Trades
no open positions (124 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $2 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $2 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $2 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $2 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $2 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $2 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $2 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $2 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1083 history records