Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:09:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EA 0xeadf…26ef sports 97 markets active 1h ago coverage 153d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$17,428 (-24%) realized −$17,428 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate52%50W / 47L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$745per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$179est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$284
7 days+$1,554
14 days+$147
30 days−$1,527
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 52% −$14,187
sports 25% +$4
other 17% −$2,287
economics 3% −$65
tech 2% −$1,783
crypto 1% +$502
politics 0% +$62
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 +1.1% -8.5% 57% 48% +13.2%
≤30d 70 +4.6% -5.3% 57% 50% -13.6%
≤90d 89 +0.3% -9.2% 53% 46% -28.0%
all 97 -3.5% -12.7% 52% 45% -31.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 45% -31.9%
10% -21.0% 42% -38.4%
15% -28.7% 36% -44.4%
20% -35.6% 27% -49.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$700) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$344 vs −$744 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

153d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$17,428
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses50 / 47
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$179
Open positions0
Markets (closed)97 / 97
History coverage153d
Avg bet$745
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 97 Trades
no open positions (41 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 21 $50 +$50 +100%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $101 +$41 +40%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $101 +$48 +48%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $120 +$80 +67%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $101 +$60 +59%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $21 +$4 +21%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Spread: Ecuador (-4.5) Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Ecuador (-3.5) Jun 20 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$74 +73%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $102 +$103 +101%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 20 $42 −$42 -100%
Spread: Ecuador (-5.5) Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $129 +$71 +55%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $51 +$40 +79%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $29 −$28 -98%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $107 +$48 +44%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $40 +$70 +178%
Spread: Norway (-3.5) Jun 16 $21 −$21 -98%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $340 −$96 -28%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $101 $0 +0%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 +$1 +1%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $204 +$240 +118%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $118 +$35 +30%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 −$7 -14%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $107 +$189 +176%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $102 $0 +0%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$57 -56%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $202 −$8 -4%
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $17 +$21 +122%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $67 +$7 +10%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $873 +$127 +14%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $35 +$25 +73%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $127 −$126 -99%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $117 −$116 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $103 +$97 +93%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $572 +$428 +75%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $1,493 +$707 +47%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $105 −$104 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $543 +$157 +29%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $49 −$48 -98%
Spread: Australia (-1.5) Jun 14 $1,832 −$1,827 -100%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $236 +$5 +2%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $231 +$120 +52%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $69 +$31 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 0.5 SELL Under 88¢ $101 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 0.5 SELL Under 80¢ $42 1h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 50¢ $44 2h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 50¢ $3 2h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 50¢ $3 2h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 60¢ $101 2h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 35¢ $24 10h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 62¢ $101 10h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $100 11h
Spread: Ecuador (-3.5) BUY Ecuador 22¢ $22 11h
Spread: Ecuador (-4.5) BUY Ecuador 10¢ $10 11h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 BUY Over 60¢ $113 12h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 BUY Over 60¢ $7 12h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Ecuador 42¢ $42 12h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $102 13h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 14h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 BUY Under 67¢ $101 14h
Spread: Ecuador (-5.5) BUY Ecuador 5¢ $2 14h
Spread: Ecuador (-5.5) BUY Ecuador 5¢ $0 14h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 14h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Croatia 52¢ $101 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $101 3d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 49¢ $51 4d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 13¢ $10 4d
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 55¢ $51 4d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $29 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $129 4d
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 36¢ $40 4d
Spread: Norway (-3.5) BUY Norway 16¢ $8 4d
Spread: Norway (-3.5) BUY Norway 16¢ $13 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 761 history records