Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:22:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EA 0xeada…bebf world 94 markets active 2h ago coverage 282d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate29%27W / 65L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% −$1
other 21% $0
politics 15% $0
economics 9% $0
sports 8% −$1
crypto 2% −$1
finance 2% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -2.9% -12.2% 29% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 26 -1.3% -10.7% 23% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 74 -0.4% -9.9% 27% 0% -9.6%
all 92 +0.0% -9.5% 29% 1% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 1% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 1% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

282d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses27 / 65
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)92 / 94
History coverage282d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 92 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 46¢ 40¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-12%)
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 98¢ 97¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $111 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $2 $0 -27%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 20 $20 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $14 +$1 +6%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $12 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $34 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $44 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $35 −$2 -5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $24 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $39 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $12 +$1 +5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $39 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $37 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $40 −$1 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $79 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $210 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $122 −$1 -1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $40 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $16 −$1 -3%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 31 $1 $0 -6%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $41 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 30 $41 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $18 +$1 +6%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 29 $40 −$1 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $8 −$1 -8%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $46 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 22 $39 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 21 $39 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 20 $32 −$1 -3%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 20 $2 $0 +8%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 20 $20 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 18 $45 $0 +0%
Will Columbus Crew win the 2026 MLS Cup? May 18 $4 $0 +2%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $54 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 15 $42 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 15 $42 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 30 $40 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 30 $34 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $132 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $72 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $10 $0 -1%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $12 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $77 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 25 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $43 −$1 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 21 $15 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 20 $79 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $75 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $75 $0 +0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $2 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 83¢ $38 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 83¢ $38 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 28h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 29h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 26¢ $20 34h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 35h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $29 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $6 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $35 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $15 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $8 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $6 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $25 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $13 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $37 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $34 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $11 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $24 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 69¢ $33 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 69¢ $33 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 30¢ $11 7d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 7d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 29¢ $8 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $34 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 84¢ $26 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 84¢ $9 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 26¢ $24 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.46 · official $0.00 (match) · 349 history records