Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:22:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EA 0xead6…7876 crypto 391 markets active 0h ago coverage 79d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$6,279 (-5%) realized −$6,279 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate51%200W / 191L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$354per market
Trades / day27.0pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$443
7 days−$443
14 days−$5,320
30 days−$1,732
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$8,423
other 0% −$128
world 0% +$6
weather 0% −$38
politics 0% −$11
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -1.1% -10.5% 50% 47% -5.8%
≤30d 97 -11.6% -20.0% 49% 44% -10.5%
≤90d 391 -9.3% -18.0% 51% 42% -14.4%
all 391 -9.3% -18.0% 51% 42% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.0% 42% -14.4%
10% ← realistic here -25.8% 34% -22.6%
15% -33.0% 24% -30.1%
20% -39.6% 18% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$153 vs −$205 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6,279
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses200 / 191
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)391 / 391
History coverage79d
Avg bet$354
Trades / day27.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 391 Trades
no open positions (28 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 20 $832 +$1,028 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 20 $516 −$500 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 20 $765 +$637 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 20 $313 +$445 +142%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 20 $187 +$153 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 20 $868 −$678 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 20 $1,047 −$911 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 20 $1,772 −$162 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 20 $522 +$45 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 20 $731 +$1,185 +162%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 20 $36 +$37 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 20 $1,132 −$1,132 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 20 $824 +$425 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 20 $512 −$414 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 20 $626 −$536 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 20 $311 −$251 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 20 $2,352 +$1,053 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 20 $99 −$77 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 20 $635 +$256 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 20 $210 +$342 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 20 $209 −$176 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 20 $207 +$195 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 20 $415 −$350 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 20 $154 −$78 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 20 $433 +$335 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 20 $520 −$488 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 20 $62 −$60 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 20 $574 −$500 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 20 $205 +$97 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 20 $517 +$499 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 19 $240 −$230 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 19 $505 −$505 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 19 $208 +$235 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 19 $311 −$300 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 19 $1,037 −$901 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 19 $521 +$395 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 19 $513 +$277 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 19 $413 +$167 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 13 $31 −$24 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 13 $326 −$315 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 12 $443 −$443 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 12 $992 −$112 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 12 $520 −$520 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 12 $518 +$380 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 12 $435 −$220 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 12 $933 −$203 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 12 $311 +$134 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 09 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 09 $359 −$347 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 09 $208 +$120 +58%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1,860 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $104 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $104 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $104 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $8 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $512 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $516 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1,401 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $104 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $104 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $516 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $757 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $104 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $104 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $104 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $0 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $116 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Up 78¢ $225 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 51m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2265 history records