Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:55:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
EA 0xead5…427a other 83 markets active 1h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$9 (-1%) realized +$62 · open −$71
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate58%29W / 21L
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$197now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$107
7 days+$286
14 days+$349
30 days+$330
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% +$56
sports 36% +$191
world 3% +$13
crypto 1% $0
tech 0% +$1
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)+13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +71.6% +55.3% 67% 67% +65.2%
≤30d 50 +25.5% +13.5% 58% 54% +35.6%
≤90d 50 +25.5% +13.5% 58% 54% +35.6%
all 50 +25.5% +13.5% 58% 54% +35.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +13.5% 54% +35.6%
10% +2.7% 44% +22.7%
15% -7.2% 40% +10.8%
20% -16.3% 38% -0.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +50% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt +50% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +61% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$6 · ×2.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.81 per $1 lost it wins $3.81
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$197
Realized+$62
Unrealized−$71
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses29 / 21
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions11
Markets (closed)50 / 83
History coverage17d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 6¢ $153 $90 −$63 (-41%)
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Germany 48¢ 44¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-7%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 23¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+42%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $14 $10 −$4 (-28%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+18%)
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes 81¢ 76¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Morocco? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+10%)
Will Europe (UEFA) score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $15 −$1 -5%
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 29 $20 −$20 -99%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Japan? Jun 29 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? AND Jun 28 $15 +$22 +150%
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $56 +$62 +111%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? A Jun 28 $29 +$17 +60%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $15 +$32 +206%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? AND W Jun 27 $15 +$17 +114%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $6 +$4 +75%
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score AND Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia Jun 26 $15 −$4 -26%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? A Jun 25 $18 +$25 +134%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? AND Jun 24 $19 +$33 +170%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? AND Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? AN Jun 24 $20 +$7 +35%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? AND Jun 24 $22 +$23 +102%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $15 +$2 +11%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $20 −$1 -4%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 AND Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21 Jun 23 $20 +$93 +455%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21 Jun 22 $20 +$12 +62%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? AND Jun 22 $41 −$4 -10%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06- Jun 21 $20 +$27 +131%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Saudi Arabia win on 202 Jun 21 $25 +$19 +76%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$6 +55%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $9 −$6 -69%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 $0 -9%
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Jun 20 $2 $0 +21%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 −$1 -6%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $10 +$9 +93%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2 +$2 +76%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $26 +$4 +15%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 18 $5 +$1 +14%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $30 +$8 +26%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +21%
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$8 +76%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $4 +$10 +241%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -10%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $2 $0 +23%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on June 14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $2 +$3 +152%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 48¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 1h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 2h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 17h
Will Croatia win on 2026-07-02? AND Will Algeria win on 2026-07-02? AN BUY 61¢ $20 29h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-30? AND Will South Africa win on 202 BUY 52¢ $12 29h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-30? AND Will South Africa win on 202 BUY 52¢ $12 29h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-30? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? AN BUY 26¢ $15 29h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? AND Will South Africa win on 2026-06-2 BUY 64¢ $15 29h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? SELL 68¢ $14 29h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY 76¢ $15 29h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY 70¢ $15 29h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $20 41h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 45¢ $36 42h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $15 44h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? AND BUY 39¢ $15 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? A BUY 62¢ $14 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? A BUY 62¢ $14 2d
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score AND Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia SELL 12¢ $11 3d
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $6 3d
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score AND Norway vs. France: Both BUY 14¢ $15 3d
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score AND Uruguay vs. Spain: Both BUY 13¢ $15 3d
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score AND Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia BUY 15¢ $15 3d
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score AND Norway vs. France BUY 14¢ $15 3d
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score AND Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia BUY 11¢ $20 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? AND W BUY 46¢ $15 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? AN BUY 18¢ $10 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? AND BUY 45¢ $10 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? A BUY 40¢ $10 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? A BUY 59¢ $20 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $196.67 · official $285.10 · 145 history records