Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:40:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EA 0xead3…b125 weather 301 markets active 0h ago coverage 197d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,729 (-9%) realized −$1,729 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate54%161W / 139L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$60
7 days−$320
14 days−$396
30 days−$1,431
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 45% −$506
other 32% −$218
sports 10% −$678
crypto 5% −$86
politics 3% −$73
tech 2% −$15
world 2% −$149
culture 1% −$23
finance 0% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -11.5% -19.9% 7% 0% -23.4%
≤30d 45 -16.6% -24.5% 9% 0% -45.2%
≤90d 187 -7.9% -16.7% 57% 12% -21.7%
all 300 -5.9% -14.9% 54% 17% -18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 17% -18.0%
10% -23.0% 11% -25.8%
15% -30.5% 8% -33.0%
20% -37.3% 5% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$30 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

197d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$1,729
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses161 / 139
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)300 / 301
History coverage197d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 300 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 19? No 77¢ 78¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Propr launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $59 −$4 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 19? Jun 17 $3 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 19? Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 19? Jun 17 $2 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 19? Jun 17 $49 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 19? Jun 17 $21 −$1 -2%
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in June? Jun 17 $205 −$13 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or below on June 19? Jun 17 $8 −$6 -76%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 19? Jun 17 $1 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 19? Jun 17 $15 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 19? Jun 17 $3 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 19? Jun 17 $25 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 19? Jun 17 $26 −$1 -3%
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 16 $200 −$13 -7%
Will City Protocol launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 16 $139 −$14 -10%
Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch? Jun 16 $50 −$4 -9%
Hyperbeat FDV above $25M one day after launch? Jun 15 $11 $0 -2%
Will BULK launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 14 $49 −$1 -3%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 14 $129 −$129 -100%
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m Jun 13 $103 −$23 -22%
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? Jun 13 $143 −$11 -8%
Ethereal FDV above $25M one day after launch? Jun 13 $89 −$5 -6%
Will Loopscale launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 13 $200 −$50 -25%
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian Jun 13 $101 −$29 -29%
Will Yeet launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $69 +$7 +10%
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? Jun 12 $204 −$6 -3%
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 15 and June 21, 2026? Jun 12 $14 $0 -3%
Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 11 $3 $0 -2%
Will GMGN launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 11 $95 −$11 -11%
Will annual inflation be 4.0% in June? Jun 11 $64 −$2 -3%
Will JP Morgan (JPM) Q2 investment banking fees be above $3.0B? Jun 08 $95 −$63 -67%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 06 $40 +$1 +1%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the second round of the 2026 Colombian pre Jun 06 $1 $0 -3%
Will Hakainde Hichilema win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections? Jun 06 $47 −$6 -13%
Will BULK launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $47 −$8 -16%
Will Loranne Ausley win the Tallahassee mayoral election? Jun 03 $50 −$27 -54%
Will PPI YoY be between 6.0% and 6.9% in May? Jun 01 $31 +$1 +3%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) May 31 $226 −$226 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $759 −$759 -100%
Will Safepoint's market cap be between $1.1B and $1.3B at market close May 29 $50 −$10 -20%
Will voter turnout be between 50% and 55% in the 2026 Seoul mayoral el May 28 $50 −$4 -8%
Ink FDV above $100M one day after launch? May 28 $50 −$4 -8%
Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027? May 27 $50 −$5 -9%
Will Papertrade launch a token by June 30, 2027? May 27 $50 −$2 -4%
Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania? May 25 $5 $0 -4%
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by May 31? May 15 $20 −$5 -25%
Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 250,000 packages by 10:00 PM o May 14 $48 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "IQ" during events with Xi Jinping? May 13 $48 −$1 -2%
Will EagleRock's market cap be between $2.0B and $2.5B at market close May 12 $48 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 11 $102 −$102 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 19? BUY No 77¢ $3 13m
Will Propr launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL No 41¢ $55 1h
Will Propr launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY No 43¢ $59 1h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 19? SELL Yes 31¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 19? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 19? SELL No 76¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 19? BUY No 74¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 19? SELL Yes 29¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 19? SELL No 77¢ $47 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 19? BUY No 78¢ $49 3h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 19? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 19? SELL No 76¢ $21 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 19? BUY No 77¢ $21 3h
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in June? SELL No 67¢ $177 4h
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in June? BUY No 72¢ $190 4h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or below on June 19? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or below on June 19? BUY Yes 37¢ $7 6h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or below on June 19? SELL Yes 39¢ $0 7h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or below on June 19? BUY Yes 43¢ $0 7h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 19? SELL No 76¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 19? BUY No 76¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 19? SELL No 72¢ $14 8h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 19? SELL No 58¢ $3 8h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 19? BUY No 58¢ $3 8h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 19? BUY No 73¢ $15 8h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 19? SELL No 67¢ $25 8h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 19? BUY No 67¢ $25 8h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 19? SELL No 70¢ $8 8h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 19? SELL No 71¢ $18 8h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 19? BUY No 72¢ $14 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.41 · official $3.41 (match) · 1024 history records