Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:17:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
EA 0xead3…6b21 crypto 84 markets active 0h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$15 (+4%) realized +$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR73%break-even
Win rate81%68W / 16L
Drawdown94%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day9.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$17
14 days+$19
30 days+$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +73%
net ROI/market (all)-5.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 72 +5.1% -4.9% 81% 74% -5.1%
≤30d 84 +4.7% -5.3% 81% 73% -5.4%
≤90d 84 +4.7% -5.3% 81% 73% -5.4%
all 84 +4.7% -5.3% 81% 73% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.3% 73% -5.4%
10% -14.4% 42% -14.5%
15% -22.6% 19% -22.7%
20% -30.2% 12% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses68 / 16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)84 / 84
History coverage9d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day9.2
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 84 Trades
no open positions (16 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$6 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 152 history records