Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:28:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
EA 0xead1…c76a sports 147 markets active 28d ago coverage 33d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 32d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (92 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL −$68,630 (-14%) realized −$72,023 · open +$3,393
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +296% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +175% what you keep after slip
Net edge+175%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate59%86W / 61L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$3,315per market
Trades / day92.3pace
Fees−$3,796est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$45,930now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 33d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% +$119,162
sports 37% +$582,324
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (92 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+257.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 +1104.9% +990.1% 100% 100% +1071.1%
≤90d 147 +295.5% +257.8% 59% 57% +65.8%
all 147 +295.5% +257.8% 59% 57% +65.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover92.3 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +257.8% 57% +65.8%
10% +223.6% 56% +49.9%
15% ← realistic here +192.3% 53% +35.4%
20% +163.6% 47% +22.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +143% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +295% · $-wt +143% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$636) neutral
Persistence
early +188% → late +401% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
20.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$10,019 vs −$2,681 · ×3.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.27 per $1 lost it wins $5.27
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$45,930
Realized−$72,023
Unrealized+$3,393
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses86 / 61
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$3,796
Open positions19
Markets (closed)147 / 147
History coverage33d ⚠
Avg bet$3,315
Trades / day92.3
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 147 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? No 96¢ 97¢ $13,848 $14,017 +$169 (+1%)
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 48¢ 57¢ $5,789 $6,936 +$1,147 (+20%)
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? No 95¢ 91¢ $5,749 $5,478 −$271 (-5%)
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 47¢ 57¢ $4,368 $5,344 +$976 (+22%)
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? No 96¢ 99¢ $5,077 $5,223 +$147 (+3%)
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 15¢ 20¢ $2,561 $3,361 +$800 (+31%)
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? No 97¢ 95¢ $2,347 $2,315 −$32 (-1%)
Will the New York Yankees win the 2026 World Series? Yes 8¢ 16¢ $821 $1,534 +$713 (+87%)
Will Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 American League Championship Series? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $1,095 $810 −$286 (-26%)
Will Seattle Mariners win the 2026 American League Championship Series? Yes 18¢ 21¢ $382 $445 +$64 (+17%)
Will Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 National League Championship Series? No 57¢ 60¢ $181 $189 +$8 (+4%)
Will Inter Miami CF win the 2026 MLS Cup? Yes 22¢ 24¢ $137 $149 +$12 (+9%)
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $96 $98 +$2 (+2%)
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Yes 6¢ 1¢ $61 $11 −$50 (-82%)
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $16 $10 −$6 (-36%)
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-4%)
Will San Jose Earthquakes win the 2026 MLS Cup? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $1 $2 +$2 (+183%)
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-40%)
Will Boston Red Sox win the 2026 American League Championship Series? Yes 12¢ 2¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-87%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $102 +$37,871 +37252%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $76 +$77 +101%
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 27 $65 +$784 +1213%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 20 $255 −$255 -100%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? May 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? May 18 $28 +$75,611 +268329%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? May 18 $40 +$88,757 +223244%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 16 $11 +$27 +236%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 12 $1,114 +$6,611 +594%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 07 $804 −$799 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 05 $1,845 −$1,845 -100%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers May 04 $4,808 −$4,808 -100%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 03 $355 −$341 -96%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - 76ers vs. Celtics May 03 $69 +$354 +510%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-01? May 02 $84 −$84 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Dom Mar Fan vs. Kody Steele (Lightweight, Prelims) May 02 $121 +$88 +73%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Timberwolves vs. Nuggets May 01 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 01 $5,760 +$159,911 +2776%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? Apr 30 $115 −$103 -90%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Apr 30 $597 −$382 -64%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $250 +$26,587 +10638%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $1,189 +$653 +55%
Thunder vs. Suns Apr 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Oilers vs. Ducks Apr 28 $461 −$461 -100%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru Apr 27 $187 +$126 +67%
Avalanche vs. Kings Apr 27 $1,348 +$1,390 +103%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Apr 27 $217 −$217 -100%
Sabres vs. Bruins Apr 27 $6,796 −$6,683 -98%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $29 −$29 -100%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Gujarat Titans Apr 26 $199 −$199 -100%
Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $24 +$10 +44%
Will Elche CF win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $2 +$1,712 +88732%
UFC Fight Night: Raoni Barcelos vs. Montel Jackson (Bantamweight, Main Apr 26 $32 −$32 -100%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $79 −$79 -100%
Will New England Revolution win on 2026-04-25? Apr 26 $6 −$6 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Sedriques Dumas vs. Jackson McVey (Middleweight, Prel Apr 26 $100 −$100 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Jafel Filho vs. Cody Durden (Flyweight, Prelims) Apr 26 $1,067 −$1,067 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Alexander Hernandez vs. Rafa Garcia (Lightweight, Pre Apr 26 $163 −$163 -100%
Will Mazatlán FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 26 $159 −$159 -100%
Penguins vs. Flyers Apr 26 $1,901 −$1,901 -100%
Will Colorado Rapids SC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Los Angeles FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 26 $65 −$65 -100%
Will CF Pachuca win on 2026-04-25? Apr 26 $143 −$143 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Eric McConico vs. Rodolfo Vieira (null, Prelims) Apr 26 $21 +$59 +277%
Will Nashville SC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 26 $1,093 +$707 +65%
UFC Fight Night: Aljamain Sterling vs. Youssef Zalal (Featherweight, M Apr 26 $338 +$11,366 +3365%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 26 $1,844 +$968 +52%
Will St. Louis City SC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 26 $79 +$51 +65%
Will Chicago Fire FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 26 $50 +$832 +1680%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $849 28d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 29¢ $15,928 28d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 98¢ $750 44d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 99¢ $5,153 44d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 99¢ $20,171 44d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 42¢ $8,452 45d
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL Yes 34¢ $17,172 46d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 99¢ $18,055 46d
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL Yes 98¢ $16,587 46d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 93¢ $729 46d
Raptors vs. Cavaliers BUY Raptors 40¢ $4,808 51d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 3¢ $1,125 54d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 54d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 3¢ $10 54d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 3¢ $9 54d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 3¢ $9 54d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 54d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 3¢ $1,433 54d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 4¢ $134 55d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 4¢ $839 55d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 3¢ $324 56d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 56d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 3¢ $50 56d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 56d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 56d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 3¢ $97 56d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 56d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 56d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 3¢ $520 56d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 56d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45,930.48 · official $45,930.52 (match) · 3500 history records