Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:02:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EA 0xeacf…3c55 crypto 308 markets active 1h ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$517 (-5%) realized −$456 · open −$61
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate49%145W / 153L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$128now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$165
7 days+$178
14 days+$231
30 days+$106
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 63% −$206
world 25% −$217
politics 4% +$20
other 3% −$201
sports 2% −$13
culture 1% +$59
finance 1% +$58
tech 0% −$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +370.4% +325.6% 75% 75% +33.3%
≤30d 37 +107.7% +87.9% 49% 49% +1.8%
≤90d 246 +4.1% -5.8% 47% 42% -15.5%
all 298 +0.8% -8.8% 49% 44% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 44% -13.4%
10% -17.5% 41% -21.7%
15% -25.5% 34% -29.3%
20% -32.8% 29% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$26 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$128
Realized−$456
Unrealized−$61
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses145 / 153
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions10
Markets (closed)298 / 308
History coverage110d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 298 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 21¢ 26¢ $42 $51 +$9 (+21%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $32 $30 −$2 (-6%)
Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $26 $20 −$6 (-23%)
Will Venezuela become 51st state? Yes 7¢ 3¢ $18 $9 −$9 (-49%)
Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by July 31? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $12 $9 −$2 (-20%)
Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Yes 11¢ 2¢ $22 $3 −$19 (-85%)
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? Yes 16¢ 3¢ $16 $3 −$13 (-83%)
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-60%)
Will Dune: Messiah have the best domestic opening week in 2026? Yes 10¢ 1¢ $6 $1 −$5 (-88%)
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2026? Yes 13¢ 1¢ $13 $1 −$12 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 50 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 19 $192 +$86 +45%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $45 +$79 +177%
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June Jun 16 $1 +$3 +323%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $16 +$4 +25%
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? Jun 15 $6 +$16 +267%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $114 −$10 -9%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -67%
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June Jun 13 $0 +$1 +525%
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from June 5 to June Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from June 2 to June Jun 09 $9 +$9 +99%
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from June 2 to June Jun 09 $0 $0 -89%
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from June 5 to June Jun 08 $6 +$10 +171%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Jun 08 $39 +$11 +29%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $57 +$12 +21%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $13 +$10 +77%
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from June 2 to June Jun 06 $7 +$2 +30%
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from June 5 to June Jun 05 $0 +$4 +733%
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? Jun 02 $161 −$74 -46%
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from May 26 to June Jun 01 $29 +$24 +82%
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from May 29 to June May 31 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Trump say "Uranium" this week? May 31 $4 +$1 +16%
Will GPT-5.6 be released between May 25 and May 31, 2026? May 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening week in May 29 $7 −$1 -14%
Will Curacao reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? May 29 $2 −$2 -86%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? May 29 $6 −$5 -88%
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from May 19 to May 2 May 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will White House post 200+ posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from May 19 to May 2 May 24 $9 +$32 +347%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET May 24 $32 −$30 -94%
Will Trump post "World Cup" on Truth Social this week? May 24 $1 +$5 +900%
Will Trump post "Midterm" on Truth Social this week? May 24 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? May 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump post "Scam" or "Hoax" on Truth Social this week? May 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from May 19 to May 2 May 23 $22 −$18 -82%
Trump approval Up or Down this week? May 23 $2 $0 +25%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22? May 22 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from May 19 to May 2 May 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Trump kiss by May 31? May 20 $17 +$73 +427%
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in May? May 19 $12 −$6 -50%
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 1 May 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 400k and 450k? May 18 $17 +$3 +20%
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 1 May 18 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Trump say "Blackwell" this week? May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 19, May 17 $5 +$3 +64%
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 1 May 17 $7 +$10 +150%
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 1 May 17 $9 +$34 +377%
Will Trump post "Football" on Truth Social this week? May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 1 May 17 $4 −$3 -74%
Will Trump post "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" on Truth Social this week? May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Uncle" or "Unc" this week? May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 21¢ $42 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 8¢ $32 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL No 50¢ $100 14h
Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $15 22h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 71¢ $83 23h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $13 23h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 40¢ $15 36h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 40¢ $25 36h
Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 38h
Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by July 31? BUY Yes 2¢ $12 40h
Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 40h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 25¢ $23 41h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 25¢ $27 41h
Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 11¢ $22 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 16¢ $28 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 16¢ $1 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 16¢ $3 3d
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June SELL Yes 19¢ $0 3d
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June SELL Yes 19¢ $0 3d
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June SELL Yes 19¢ $3 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $20 4d
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? SELL Yes 22¢ $22 4d
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $14 4d
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 4d
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $42 4d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 9¢ $7 5d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 5d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 37¢ $6 6d
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June SELL Yes 25¢ $1 6d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 26¢ $26 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $128.04 · official $128.04 (match) · 1333 history records