Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:21:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
EA 0xeacf…a2a4 crypto 56 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$16 (+3%) realized +$20 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate61%30W / 19L
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day49.0pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$66now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% +$25
other 19% +$6
world 4% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 -3.6% -12.8% 61% 49% -2.6%
≤30d 49 -3.6% -12.8% 61% 49% -2.6%
≤90d 49 -3.6% -12.8% 61% 49% -2.6%
all 49 -3.6% -12.8% 61% 49% -2.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.8% 49% -2.6%
10% ← realistic here -21.1% 35% -11.9%
15% -28.7% 29% -20.5%
20% -35.7% 18% -28.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$66
Realized+$20
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses30 / 19
Open positions7
Markets (closed)49 / 56
History coverage2d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day49.0
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-16%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$5 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 21 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$10 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$7 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 21 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 21 $76 +$5 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$9 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 21 $25 +$5 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$12 +225%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$10 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$12 +225%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 20 $20 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$3 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$17 +162%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$1 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $30 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $25 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Down 81¢ $36 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Up 86¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Down 64¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Down 56¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65.92 · official $65.92 (match) · 98 history records