Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:03:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EA 0xeacc…9167 other 25 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$63 (+11%) realized +$47 · open +$16
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate47%8W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day22.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$315now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% −$21
sports 36% +$54
world 2% −$10
crypto 2% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -3.9% -13.0% 47% 41% -4.1%
≤30d 17 -3.9% -13.0% 47% 41% -4.1%
≤90d 17 -3.9% -13.0% 47% 41% -4.1%
all 17 -3.9% -13.0% 47% 41% -4.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.0% 41% -4.1%
10% ← realistic here -21.3% 41% -13.3%
15% -28.9% 41% -21.7%
20% -35.9% 41% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 68% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$11 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$315
Realized+$47
Unrealized+$16
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses8 / 9
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions8
Markets (closed)17 / 25
History coverage2d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day22.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 24¢ 26¢ $199 $212 +$12 (+6%)
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Over 49¢ 48¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-3%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 21¢ 62¢ $5 $15 +$10 (+193%)
Egypt to win the second half? Yes 53¢ 50¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-7%)
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Yes 31¢ 33¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals Yes $5 $0 −$5 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -99%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 21 $5 +$5 +97%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $26 +$24 +91%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $40 +$56 +139%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $10 +$9 +86%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $30 −$30 -98%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 +$11 +209%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 −$1 -14%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $10 $0 +1%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$7 +70%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $20 −$20 -99%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $10 +$5 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 6m
Egypt to win the second half? BUY Yes 53¢ $15 10m
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 49¢ $20 12m
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $41 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $5 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 2h
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 1 Cabo Verde? SELL Yes $0 3h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 3h
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 3h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $10 8h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 8h
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes $5 8h
Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals BUY Yes $5 8h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 96¢ $11 9h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $20 10h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $6 10h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 50¢ $5 11h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 15h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 19h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) SELL Japan 100¢ $96 20h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 41¢ $40 23h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $19 24h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 24h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 50¢ $20 24h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $10 27h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Ecuador 38¢ $20 28h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 64¢ $16 28h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 27¢ $4 28h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 29h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners SELL Under 51¢ $10 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $315.20 · official $315.20 (match) · 46 history records