Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:27:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0

score

EA 0xeacb…4a8e other 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$201 (+22%) realized +$179 · open +$22

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip

Net edge-24%after slip

Net WR41%break-even

Win rate41%7W / 10L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$50per market

Trades / day9.4pace

Fees−$3est.

Kalshi-fit28%portable

Net worth$84now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +41%

net ROI/market (all)-18.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	17	-9.6%	-18.2%	41%	41%	+11.0%
≤30d	17	-9.6%	-18.2%	41%	41%	+11.0%
≤90d	17	-9.6%	-18.2%	41%	41%	+11.0%
all	17	-9.6%	-18.2%	41%	41%	+11.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover9.4 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-18.2%	41%	+11.0%
10%	-26.0%	41%	+0.3%
15%	-33.1%	41%	-9.3%
20%	-39.7%	41%	-18.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 23% · top 2 43% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -10% · $-wt +23% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +12% → late -29% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$77 vs −$35 · ×2.2 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.54 per $1 lost it wins $1.54

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$84

Realized+$179

Unrealized+$22

Win rate (resolved)41%

Wins / losses7 / 10

Est. fees paid−$3

Open positions1

Markets (closed)17 / 18

History coverage3d

Avg bet$50

Trades / day9.4

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit28%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 17 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Yes	53¢	72¢	$62	$84	+$22 (+35%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals	Jun 18	$79	+$109	+137%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$76	+$103	+136%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$136	+$89	+66%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$100	−$98	-98%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists	Jun 17	$51	−$50	-98%
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery	Jun 17	$49	−$48	-99%
Marcel Sabitzer: 1+ goals	Jun 17	$23	−$23	-98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 17	$16	−$16	-100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	Jun 17	$14	−$14	-100%
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals	Jun 17	$28	−$28	-100%
Erling Haaland: 1+ assists	Jun 17	$25	−$25	-100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 17	$26	−$26	-100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$52	+$122	+237%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5	Jun 16	$50	+$51	+103%
Lionel Messi: 1+ assists	Jun 16	$25	−$25	-98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$69	+$44	+64%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet	Jun 16	$24	+$23	+95%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	53¢	$63	1h
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals	SELL Yes	99¢	$188	12h
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	41¢	$79	14h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	96¢	$180	15h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	40¢	$76	18h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	99¢	$225	18h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	59¢	$136	21h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	48¢	$100	21h
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists	BUY Yes	34¢	$51	24h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery	BUY Adrian Mannarino	53¢	$49	27h
Marcel Sabitzer: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	32¢	$23	37h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5	SELL Over	100¢	$174	37h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5	BUY Over	29¢	$52	39h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5	SELL Over	99¢	$101	40h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5	BUY Over	48¢	$50	42h
Lionel Messi: 1+ assists	BUY Yes	38¢	$25	43h
Erling Haaland: 1+ assists	BUY Yes	20¢	$25	43h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	BUY Yes	17¢	$14	43h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	82¢	$113	43h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	49¢	$69	44h
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	30¢	$28	45h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet	SELL Corentin Moutet	99¢	$48	2d
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet	BUY Corentin Moutet	50¢	$24	2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	20¢	$26	2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	24¢	$16	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $83.64 · official $84.81 · 30 history records