Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:37:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EA 0xeaca…d6c2 world 72 markets active 1h ago coverage 525d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge
Total PnL +$18 (+1%) realized +$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +52% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +37% what you keep after slip
Net edge+37%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate37%26W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$23now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$14
30 days+$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% +$26
politics 18% +$1
other 14% +$3
economics 7% $0
sports 6% −$9
weather 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)+37.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -4.3% -13.5% 50% 12% -9.3%
≤30d 27 +73.2% +56.7% 48% 11% -8.4%
≤90d 62 +63.8% +48.2% 35% 6% -9.0%
all 70 +51.9% +37.4% 37% 9% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +37.4% 9% -9.3%
10% +24.2% 6% -18.0%
15% +12.2% 4% -25.9%
20% +1.2% 3% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +52% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +47% → late +56% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.56 per $1 lost it wins $1.56
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

525d coverage
Net worth$23
Realized+$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses26 / 44
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)70 / 72
History coverage525d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $22 $22 +$0 (+1%)
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 4¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2339%)
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Yes 24¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+320%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $133 +$1 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $18 −$2 -12%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $72 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $71 +$1 +1%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $49 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $17 +$2 +13%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $2 −$1 -38%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $168 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 07 $121 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $76 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $48 +$3 +7%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $122 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $57 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $145 +$10 +7%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $101 +$16 +16%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 29 $62 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 27 $56 −$2 -3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $85 +$4 +5%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $130 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $34 −$2 -7%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 25 $59 −$1 -1%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 23 $25 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 21 $49 −$1 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 18 $28 $0 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 17 $81 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $17 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 16 $7 $0 -5%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 15 $41 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 14 $2 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $54 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $3 $0 -7%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $52 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $48 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $196 −$1 -0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 21 $43 +$1 +1%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $44 −$1 -1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $7 $0 -4%
Will Celta win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Apr 14 $2 $0 +7%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $2 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $3 $0 +10%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $95 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $8 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 11 $2 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $73 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 09 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 08 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 08 $19 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $108 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 08 $44 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $45 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $22 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $38 8h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $12 8h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $21 8h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $70 11h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $16 14h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $18 16h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $72 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 55¢ $59 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 55¢ $13 24h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $34 26h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $38 26h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 91¢ $33 31h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 91¢ $6 31h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 91¢ $32 31h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $12 41h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $7 41h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $44 41h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 64¢ $24 46h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 64¢ $39 46h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $22 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $26 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $47 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $25 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $25 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $49 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 28¢ $16 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 23¢ $3 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 24¢ $17 4d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.92 · official $22.39 (match) · 348 history records