Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:15:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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EA 0xeaca…23d7 crypto 342 markets active 2h ago coverage 51d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,098 (+10%) realized +$1,110 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate41%135W / 197L
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day13.8pace
Fees−$92est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$531now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$183
7 days+$120
14 days−$225
30 days+$1,635
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 50% −$429
sports 39% +$1,468
other 11% −$102
world 0% +$13
politics 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -42.4% -47.9% 25% 25% +15.2%
≤30d 105 -9.5% -18.1% 36% 36% +21.5%
≤90d 332 -9.7% -18.3% 41% 40% -1.4%
all 332 -9.7% -18.3% 41% 40% -1.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.3% 40% -1.4%
10% -26.1% 40% -10.8%
15% -33.3% 39% -19.4%
20% -39.8% 39% -27.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$26 · ×1.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$531
Realized+$1,110
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses135 / 197
Est. fees paid−$92
Open positions10
Markets (closed)332 / 342
History coverage51d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day13.8
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 332 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 69¢ $333 $341 +$7 (+2%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $148 $104 −$44 (-30%)
Will Phoenix Suns win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $16 $29 +$14 (+87%)
Will Houston Rockets win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $15 $20 +$5 (+32%)
Will Toronto Raptors win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $6 $16 +$10 (+187%)
Will Orlando Magic win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+17%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-38%)
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-28%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 166 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $103 −$101 -98%
Neymar Jr: 1+ goals Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $225 +$285 +126%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $36 −$35 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $21 +$28 +134%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Jun 14 $356 −$350 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $92 −$92 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Jun 13 $18 −$18 -99%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $22 −$21 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $57 +$143 +250%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $167 −$163 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 11 $203 −$200 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $187 −$184 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 10 $51 +$35 +68%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $420 +$504 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 06 $26 +$11 +42%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 06 $249 +$251 +101%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $208 +$392 +188%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 05 $26 +$27 +105%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $131 +$219 +167%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 03 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 03 $21 −$21 -97%
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shanghai Sharks Jun 02 $10 −$9 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 01 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 31 $651 +$1,025 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 31 $26 +$17 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET May 31 $5 −$5 -95%
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shanghai Sharks May 31 $31 +$69 +223%
Will San Antonio Spurs advance to the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $102 +$109 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET May 29 $26 −$25 -95%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 29 $17 +$10 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET May 29 $42 −$41 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET May 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET May 29 $25 +$25 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET May 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline May 29 $51 −$50 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 29 $42 +$13 +31%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET May 26 $38 −$37 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 26 $16 −$12 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 26 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET May 26 $9 +$11 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET May 26 $16 −$16 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET May 26 $15 +$15 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET May 26 $21 +$19 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET May 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET May 26 $16 +$14 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $336 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 21¢ $103 11h
Neymar Jr: 1+ goals BUY Yes 1¢ $1 39h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 41¢ $125 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $100 2d
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 14¢ $31 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $36 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 6d
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 6d
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 6d
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 6d
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 6d
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 6d
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 6d
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 6d
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 6d
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 6d
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 6d
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 6d
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 6d
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 6d
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 6d
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 6d
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $531.21 · official $531.26 (match) · 902 history records