Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:38:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
EA 0xeac8…7d97 crypto 133 markets active 2h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$7,995 (-11%) realized −$7,995 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate65%87W / 46L
Whale WR74%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$570per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$80est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$712
7 days+$712
14 days+$712
30 days+$712
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% −$5,784
other 28% +$604
crypto 22% −$738
world 2% −$1,542
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-21.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +45.2% +31.3% 100% 100% +31.3%
≤30d 1 +45.2% +31.3% 100% 100% +31.3%
≤90d 47 -17.3% -25.2% 60% 40% -24.7%
all 133 -13.5% -21.7% 65% 40% -18.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.7% 40% -18.4%
10% -29.2% 25% -26.2%
15% -36.1% 15% -33.4%
20% -42.3% 7% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 74% (≥$802) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -30% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$123 vs −$403 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7,995
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses87 / 46
Whale WR (big bets)74%
Est. fees paid−$80
Open positions0
Markets (closed)133 / 133
History coverage114d
Avg bet$570
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 133 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1,576 +$712 +45%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $1,602 −$1,577 -98%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 213.5 May 12 $941 −$935 -99%
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 1.5 May 11 $300 +$100 +33%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $254 −$250 -99%
Will NEOM SC win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $731 +$44 +6%
NEOM SC vs. Al Shabab Saudi Club: O/U 3.5 May 11 $303 +$15 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET May 11 $21 −$20 -94%
Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Real Betis Balompié: O/U 1.5 May 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Elche CF vs. Deportivo Alavés: O/U 2.5 May 11 $52 −$52 -100%
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-05-08? May 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Liverpool FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 2.5 May 11 $201 −$201 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Alexei Popyrin vs Jakub Mensik May 11 $252 −$252 -100%
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Eva Lys vs Paula Badosa May 11 $437 −$437 -100%
Open Capfinances Rouen Metropole: Oleksandra Oliynykova vs Lilli Tagge May 11 $527 −$527 -100%
Will Vissel Kōbe win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $470 −$470 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $406 −$406 -100%
BMW Open: Vit Kopriva vs Luciano Darderi May 11 $1,511 −$1,511 -100%
Will Gimnasia y Esgrima de La Plata win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $693 +$59 +8%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 11 $607 −$600 -99%
Will Santos FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $297 +$102 +34%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 10 $1,499 +$275 +18%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Stade Brestois 29: O/U 2.5 May 10 $46 +$31 +67%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Stade Brestois 29: O/U 4.5 May 10 $174 +$87 +50%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Stade Brestois 29: O/U 3.5 May 10 $453 +$102 +23%
FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 8.5 Total Corners May 10 $336 +$100 +30%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $10 +$5 +53%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $1,544 +$955 +62%
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) May 10 $144 −$138 -96%
Spread: Thunder (-8.5) May 10 $215 +$85 +40%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $544 +$195 +36%
VfB Stuttgart vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 4.5 May 09 $20 +$44 +216%
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $333 +$147 +44%
Liverpool FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 3.5 May 09 $2,003 +$110 +6%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 09 $1,008 +$319 +32%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-08? May 08 $1,500 +$683 +46%
Santa Cruz: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Gonzalo Bueno Apr 15 $485 +$42 +9%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $314 +$171 +54%
BMW Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Apr 14 $500 −$182 -36%
Barcelona Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Apr 14 $407 +$30 +7%
BMW Open: Zizou Bergs vs Marko Topo Apr 14 $802 +$105 +13%
Oeiras 3: Timofey Skatov vs Luca Van Assche Apr 14 $732 +$69 +10%
BMW Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Luciano Darderi Apr 14 $10 +$1 +6%
Barcelona Open: Pedro Martinez vs Lorenzo Sonego Apr 14 $500 +$222 +44%
Busan: Liam Broady vs Murphy Cassone Apr 14 $501 +$9 +2%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-03-21? Apr 11 $1,574 −$1,542 -98%
RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Getafe CF: O/U 2.5 Apr 11 $300 −$240 -80%
Everton FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 4.5 Mar 21 $32 +$2 +6%
Everton FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 3.5 Mar 21 $250 −$58 -23%
AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 3.5 Mar 21 $1,284 −$1,284 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 86¢ $2,288 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 59¢ $1,576 3h
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 40d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? BUY Yes 48¢ $1,597 40d
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 213.5 BUY Under 78¢ $941 41d
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $400 41d
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-05-11? BUY Yes 53¢ $254 42d
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $300 42d
Will NEOM SC win on 2026-05-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $776 42d
NEOM SC vs. Al Shabab Saudi Club: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 73¢ $299 42d
NEOM SC vs. Al Shabab Saudi Club: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 73¢ $4 42d
NEOM SC vs. Al Shabab Saudi Club: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 73¢ $4 42d
NEOM SC vs. Al Shabab Saudi Club: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 73¢ $4 42d
NEOM SC vs. Al Shabab Saudi Club: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 73¢ $4 42d
NEOM SC vs. Al Shabab Saudi Club: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 73¢ $4 42d
Will NEOM SC win on 2026-05-11? BUY Yes 94¢ $731 42d
NEOM SC vs. Al Shabab Saudi Club: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 69¢ $303 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $21 42d
Will Gimnasia y Esgrima de La Plata win on 2026-05-10? SELL Yes 99¢ $752 42d
Will Gimnasia y Esgrima de La Plata win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 91¢ $693 42d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Spurs 62¢ $282 42d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Spurs 55¢ $123 42d
Will Santos FC win on 2026-05-10? SELL Yes 100¢ $399 42d
Will Santos FC win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 74¢ $14 42d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Spurs 65¢ $202 42d
Will Santos FC win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 74¢ $26 42d
Will Santos FC win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 74¢ $3 42d
Will Santos FC win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 74¢ $1 42d
Will Santos FC win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 74¢ $10 42d
Will Santos FC win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 74¢ $4 42d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 336 history records