Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T21:35:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
EA 0xeac6…6cf8 crypto 127 markets active 1h ago coverage 588d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$176 (-8%) realized −$225 · open +$49
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +21% what you keep after slip
Net edge+21%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate45%41W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$584now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days+$7
14 days−$10
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 35% +$71
crypto 33% −$50
sports 22% −$81
politics 6% +$32
economics 3% −$81
world 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+20.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +18.3% +7.1% 52% 48% -7.8%
≤30d 36 +23.8% +12.0% 56% 50% -15.7%
≤90d 47 +17.7% +6.5% 53% 49% -16.1%
all 92 +33.4% +20.7% 45% 39% -19.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +20.7% 39% -19.7%
10% +9.1% 37% -27.4%
15% -1.4% 32% -34.4%
20% -11.1% 26% -40.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +33% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +47% → late +20% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$14 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

588d coverage
Net worth$584
Realized−$225
Unrealized+$49
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses41 / 51
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions34
Markets (closed)92 / 127
History coverage588d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 34 History 92 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $128 $155 +$27 (+21%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 83¢ 84¢ $83 $84 +$1 (+1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $64 $56 −$8 (-12%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $46 $43 −$3 (-6%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $39 $43 +$4 (+10%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $35 $39 +$3 (+10%)
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 4¢ 16¢ $9 $32 +$23 (+267%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $22 $24 +$3 (+12%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $16 $18 +$2 (+14%)
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Norway 60¢ 58¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-2%)
Will Cape Verde finish last in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 51¢ 40¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-22%)
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 68¢ 69¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+2%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 68¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+2%)
I'll read the skill first to apply the correct format.Will Lionel Messi's national team advance the furthest at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 62¢ 62¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+6%)
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 28¢ 26¢ $6 $5 −$0 (-9%)
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 80¢ 80¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 26¢ 18¢ $5 $4 −$2 (-29%)
Will Jordan finish last in Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 77¢ 72¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-6%)
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 70¢ 66¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-6%)
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 57¢ 60¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 39¢ 58¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+50%)
Will Colombia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 55¢ 53¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 41¢ 50¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+22%)
Will South Korea reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 31¢ 46¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 41 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $40 +$40 +99%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $5 +$15 +312%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $13 +$7 +54%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $23 +$7 +29%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 +$5 +109%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $4 +$16 +388%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $8 +$12 +152%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $29 −$29 -99%
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -88%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $33 −$33 -99%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $12 −$11 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Will FURIA qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 13 $100 +$3 +3%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 +$10 +109%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $12 +$8 +73%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $3 −$1 -58%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $10 +$10 +97%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $14 −$14 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $7 +$3 +42%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $18 −$18 -98%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $13 +$2 +15%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $31 +$1 +4%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $16 +$4 +25%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $2 +$8 +307%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $16 −$8 -50%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $5 +$4 +70%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $10 $0 +4%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $10 −$10 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $16 +$7 +43%
Will Neymar be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad list May 18 $129 −$40 -31%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 18 $13 $0 -0%
Will Bento be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad list? May 18 $10 +$4 +45%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs May 16 $16 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 07 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 07 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET May 07 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 07 $1 +$2 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET May 07 $2 +$5 +259%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET May 07 $2 +$1 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET May 07 $5 −$5 -95%
Everton FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 1.5 May 05 $20 +$7 +35%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $30 +$21 +70%
Sevilla FC vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 1.5 May 04 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Mar 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Mar 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Mar 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 1h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 24¢ $2 1h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 24¢ $2 1h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 BUY Over 65¢ $3 1h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 BUY Over 64¢ $10 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 1h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $12 7h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $8 21h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 20¢ $4 21h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 47¢ $5 21h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 77¢ $23 24h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $59 27h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 BUY Over 9¢ $2 28h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 BUY Over 9¢ $0 28h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 BUY Over 9¢ $1 28h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 BUY Over 9¢ $0 28h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 BUY Over 9¢ $1 28h
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 2¢ $0 28h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 28¢ $6 28h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 BUY Over 14¢ $4 28h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 BUY Over 14¢ $3 28h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 57¢ $12 29h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 BUY Over 15¢ $5 29h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 24¢ $12 29h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 BUY Over 15¢ $2 29h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 37¢ $7 29h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 BUY Over 27¢ $10 29h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $20 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $584.42 · official $585.52 (match) · 422 history records