Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:18:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EA 0xeac2…fd78 sports 484 markets active 10h ago coverage 172d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$22 (+0%) realized +$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate50%243W / 241L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Fees−$109est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$127
7 days−$179
14 days+$21
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$110
other 3% +$43
politics 0% −$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -23.2% -30.5% 35% 29% -30.6%
≤30d 60 +2.1% -7.6% 43% 42% -9.6%
≤90d 358 +1.5% -8.2% 54% 53% -11.5%
all 484 -0.6% -10.0% 50% 48% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 48% -10.2%
10% -18.6% 43% -18.8%
15% -26.5% 31% -26.6%
20% -33.7% 23% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$18 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

172d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses243 / 241
Est. fees paid−$109
Open positions0
Markets (closed)484 / 484
History coverage172d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 484 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 17 $39 +$76 +197%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $35 +$44 +124%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $73 +$7 +10%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 15 $34 −$34 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $35 −$35 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 14 $35 −$35 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $46 +$56 +124%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $42 −$42 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $45 −$45 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $45 −$45 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $46 +$56 +124%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 12 $48 −$48 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $49 −$49 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $49 −$49 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $49 +$64 +129%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 10 $42 +$51 +124%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 10 $41 +$62 +152%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 10 $41 +$52 +129%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 07 $42 +$91 +216%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 07 $22 −$22 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 07 $43 −$43 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 07 $43 −$43 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 06 $38 −$38 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 06 $38 +$58 +150%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 06 $39 +$57 +146%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 06 $36 +$50 +140%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 05 $33 −$33 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 05 $33 +$40 +124%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 05 $36 +$77 +216%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 04 $38 −$38 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 04 $38 −$38 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 04 $44 −$44 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Jun 03 $39 −$39 -100%
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 03 $45 −$45 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 03 $49 −$49 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Jun 02 $47 −$47 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 01 $50 −$50 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners May 31 $46 +$62 +134%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros May 30 $44 −$44 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox May 30 $42 +$60 +144%
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 30 $42 +$62 +146%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 29 $47 −$47 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 28 $52 −$52 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 26 $48 −$48 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 25 $44 +$55 +124%
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels May 25 $43 +$56 +129%
New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins May 24 $41 +$53 +131%
Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles May 24 $40 +$54 +133%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 44¢ $35 9h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 33¢ $39 12h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 43¢ $2 33h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 43¢ $32 33h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 34¢ $38 36h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 39¢ $34 2d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 41¢ $35 2d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 40¢ $5 2d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 40¢ $20 2d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 40¢ $0 2d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 40¢ $10 2d
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 40¢ $42 3d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 44¢ $46 3d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 42¢ $12 3d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 42¢ $21 3d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 42¢ $12 3d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Minnesota Twins 44¢ $46 4d
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 34¢ $50 4d
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 43¢ $45 4d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Philadelphia Phillies 31¢ $50 4d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 42¢ $48 5d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 43¢ $49 6d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 43¢ $49 6d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 43¢ $49 6d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 39¢ $41 7d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 43¢ $41 7d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 44¢ $42 7d
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Minnesota Twins 24¢ $22 9d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Angels 31¢ $42 9d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Angels 25¢ $43 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1963 history records