Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:11:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
EA 0xeabf…2aeb sports 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 61d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$544 (+39%) realized +$544 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +23% what you keep after slip
Net edge+23%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate71%5W / 2L
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$174per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$5
14 days−$127
30 days+$77
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% +$520
other 5% +$5
world 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+23.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +7.3% -2.9% 100% 0% -2.9%
≤30d 3 +15.7% +4.6% 67% 33% +10.7%
≤90d 7 +36.2% +23.2% 71% 57% +25.8%
all 7 +36.2% +23.2% 71% 57% +25.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +23.2% 57% +25.8%
10% +11.4% 57% +13.8%
15% +0.7% 43% +2.8%
20% -9.2% 43% -7.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 74% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +39% too few recent
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +36% · $-wt +39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$193 vs −$220 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.19 per $1 lost it wins $2.19
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized+$544
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses5 / 2
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage61d
Avg bet$174
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $65 +$5 +7%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 08 $134 −$132 -99%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $146 +$204 +140%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 11 $215 +$355 +165%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 10 $165 +$45 +27%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 29 $312 −$309 -99%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 24 $313 +$357 +114%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $38 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 93¢ $65 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 55¢ $134 13d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 41¢ $146 22d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Timberwolves 37¢ $215 43d
Thunder vs. Lakers BUY Thunder 78¢ $165 45d
Rockets vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 63¢ $312 54d
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves BUY Timberwolves 46¢ $313 61d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.79 · official $37.79 (match) · 13 history records