Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:46:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
EA 0xeab8…3cec sports 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$61 (+10%) realized +$51 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate49%18W / 19L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% −$3
other 30% +$73
crypto 3% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +0.6% -9.0% 49% 49% +3.7%
≤30d 37 +0.6% -9.0% 49% 49% +3.7%
≤90d 37 +0.6% -9.0% 49% 49% +3.7%
all 37 +0.6% -9.0% 49% 49% +3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 49% +3.7%
10% -17.7% 49% -6.2%
15% -25.7% 49% -15.3%
20% -32.9% 46% -23.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +26% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$11 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized+$51
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses18 / 19
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)37 / 43
History coverage6d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Morocco vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 42¢ 100¢ $25 $59 +$34 (+138%)
Morocco leading at halftime? Yes 60¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $20 −$20 -98%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $20 −$20 -98%
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
England vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $10 +$11 +105%
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Norway vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $15 +$17 +114%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $10 +$12 +114%
Norway vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $20 +$21 +105%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $10 +$17 +165%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Uruguay leading at halftime? Jun 22 $10 +$11 +105%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $50 +$23 +46%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $8 −$8 -98%
Ecuador leading at halftime? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $7 −$7 -98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Germany to win the second half? Jun 20 $20 +$15 +76%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$15 +146%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$14 +70%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $10 +$15 +146%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $10 +$13 +131%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $7 −$7 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $10 +$18 +172%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 20 $12 +$16 +129%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $30 +$21 +70%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $12 +$10 +79%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 +$13 +65%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $12 −$12 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 +$17 +83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco 2nd Half O/U 1.5 AND Morocco to win the sec BUY 47¢ $9 47m
Morocco vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 42¢ $25 1h
Morocco leading at halftime? BUY Yes 60¢ $25 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY 60¢ $30 2h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY 43¢ $20 2h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $20 3h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $20 26h
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 44¢ $10 27h
England vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 0.5 BUY Over 44¢ $10 28h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 42¢ $10 28h
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $10 28h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 48¢ $10 32h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $10 46h
Norway vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 46¢ $15 47h
Norway vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 34¢ $10 47h
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 46¢ $10 2d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 37¢ $10 2d
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 48¢ $20 2d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $10 2d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 32¢ $10 3d
Uruguay leading at halftime? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 3d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 68¢ $50 3d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 48¢ $10 3d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Under 36¢ $8 3d
Ecuador leading at halftime? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 3d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 32¢ $7 3d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 41¢ $10 4d
Germany to win the second half? BUY Yes 56¢ $20 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 4d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 42¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.51 · official $118.51 · 61 history records