Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:32:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EA 0xeab6…d4c6 sports 182 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 6d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (520 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$21,424 (+35%) realized +$21,743 · open −$319
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate45%65W / 79L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$332per market
Trades / day519.6pace
Fees−$543est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$5,043now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% +$1,445
sports 39% −$718
world 7% −$89
weather 4% −$599
politics 1% −$266
tech 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (520 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 144 -6.0% -14.9% 45% 24% -9.4%
≤30d 144 -6.0% -14.9% 45% 24% -9.4%
≤90d 144 -6.0% -14.9% 45% 24% -9.4%
all 144 -6.0% -14.9% 45% 24% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover519.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.9% 24% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here -23.1% 14% -18.0%
15% -30.5% 12% -26.0%
20% -37.3% 10% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -3% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
10.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$76 vs −$62 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$5,043
Realized+$21,743
Unrealized−$319
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses65 / 79
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$543
Open positions104
Markets (closed)144 / 182
History coverage6d ⚠
Avg bet$332
Trades / day519.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 104 History 144 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 5-10%? No 68¢ 100¢ $242 $356 +$114 (+47%)
Will the Democratic Party win the NJ-10 House seat? Yes 93¢ 94¢ $298 $299 +$2 (+1%)
Will Gavin Newsom be arrested before 2027? No 85¢ 94¢ $249 $274 +$25 (+10%)
Valorant: Mandatory vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group A Mandatory 50¢ 55¢ $248 $268 +$20 (+8%)
United States vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Under 46¢ 49¢ $240 $255 +$15 (+6%)
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 2 Paraguay? No 96¢ 97¢ $249 $250 +$1 (+0%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? No 90¢ 90¢ $246 $245 −$1 (-1%)
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026? Yes 7¢ 37¢ $39 $209 +$170 (+440%)
Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch? Yes 53¢ 60¢ $159 $181 +$22 (+14%)
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 15-20%? No 90¢ 100¢ $160 $178 +$18 (+11%)
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 10-15%? No 81¢ 100¢ $131 $162 +$31 (+23%)
United States vs. Australia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Under 22¢ 22¢ $144 $147 +$3 (+2%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? No 46¢ 44¢ $151 $146 −$5 (-3%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 74¢ 74¢ $145 $146 +$1 (+1%)
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 48¢ 46¢ $144 $136 −$7 (-5%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? No 41¢ 36¢ $146 $126 −$20 (-14%)
Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15? No 18¢ 12¢ $170 $119 −$50 (-30%)
Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in June? No 81¢ 85¢ $112 $117 +$6 (+5%)
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Curaçao 33¢ 32¢ $97 $92 −$4 (-5%)
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 65¢ 76¢ $74 $86 +$12 (+16%)
Will Seattle Mariners win the 2026 AL West title? No 53¢ 36¢ $118 $82 −$36 (-31%)
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 35¢ 27¢ $98 $74 −$23 (-24%)
Puffpaw FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes 4¢ 11¢ $26 $74 +$48 (+187%)
Will Tom Homan be arrested before 2027? Yes 15¢ 23¢ $46 $69 +$23 (+49%)
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026? Yes 2¢ 6¢ $27 $66 +$40 (+149%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 19? Jun 19 $35 −$20 -57%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 19 $127 −$88 -69%
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs eSuba (BO3) - United21 Group A Jun 19 $464 +$189 +41%
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs eSuba - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $251 +$35 +14%
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs eSuba - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $277 +$5 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 18? Jun 19 $39 −$30 -76%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun Jun 19 $84 −$45 -54%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 18? Jun 19 $60 −$56 -93%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun Jun 19 $85 −$69 -82%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $1,353 +$166 +12%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Draw at halftime? Jun 19 $518 −$430 -83%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $1,476 +$28 +2%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $1,634 +$90 +6%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 3 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $1,403 +$14 +1%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $689 +$11 +2%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 3 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $491 +$6 +1%
Korea Republic leading at halftime? Jun 19 $724 −$14 -2%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $847 +$21 +2%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $499 +$8 +2%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $566 +$5 +1%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $1,386 +$66 +5%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $304 −$11 -4%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $150 −$4 -2%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $451 −$21 -5%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 19 $458 −$13 -3%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $501 −$4 -1%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 3 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $46 +$1 +2%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $802 +$3 +0%
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire Jun 18 $334 +$84 +25%
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 18 $554 +$119 +21%
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 18 $1,135 −$82 -7%
Valorant: Alliance Guardians vs Pigeons (BO3) - VCL North America: Sta Jun 18 $200 +$42 +21%
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco Jun 17 $539 −$129 -24%
ITF Tulsa: Ozan Baris vs Justin Boulais Jun 17 $46 +$9 +20%
ITF Ystad: Gergana Topalova vs Loes Ebeling Koning Jun 17 $35 −$35 -100%
ITF Klosters: Kailey Evans vs Laura Mair Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
ITF Klosters: Dune Vaissaud vs Josephine Kunz Jun 17 $10 −$6 -66%
ITF Ystad: Valentina Steiner vs Eva Bennemann Jun 17 $250 +$166 +66%
ITF Blois: Lola Radivojevic vs Francesca Curmi Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
ITF Klosters: Justin Schlageter vs Patrick Zahraj Jun 17 $47 +$252 +540%
ITF San Gregorio: Francesca Gandolfi vs Vittoria Paganetti Jun 17 $250 $0 +0%
ITF Klosters: Tanguy Genier vs Nicolas Kobelt Jun 17 $3 $0 +17%
ITF Mohammedia: Diae El Jardi vs Zeel Desai Jun 17 $136 −$136 -100%
ITF Lourinha: Goncalo Marques vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 17 $105 −$105 -100%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $493 −$163 -33%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 2 Norway? Jun 17 $475 +$21 +4%
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 3 Norway? Jun 17 $350 +$3 +1%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? Jun 17 $279 +$60 +22%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 1 Norway? Jun 17 $251 +$4 +2%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 17 $772 +$321 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Under 36¢ $17 1m
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Under 36¢ $13 1m
United States vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 48¢ $99 4m
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap SELL No 29¢ $20 12m
United States vs. Australia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 22¢ $44 32m
United States vs. Australia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 22¢ $3 37m
United States vs. Australia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 22¢ $2 41m
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Under 33¢ $0 44m
United States vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 48¢ $24 47m
United States vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 45¢ $163 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 22¢ $50 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 22¢ $3 1h
Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in June? SELL No 86¢ $86 1h
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? BUY Yes 6¢ $18 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 22¢ $3 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 22¢ $1 2h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 22¢ $23 2h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 22¢ $0 2h
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY Yes 28¢ $50 2h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 22¢ $14 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 76¢ $108 2h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 22¢ $1 2h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 22¢ $1 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 74¢ $249 2h
Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in June? SELL No 84¢ $33 2h
Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in June? SELL No 83¢ $24 2h
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 2 Paraguay? BUY No 96¢ $249 3h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 33¢ $57 3h
Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in June? BUY No 81¢ $101 4h
Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in June? SELL No 82¢ $82 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,043.23 · official $5,035.69 (match) · 3500 history records