Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:09:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
EA 0xeab2…4443 other 90 markets active 1h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$96 (+1%) realized +$96 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate15%13W / 76L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$155per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$6
politics 36% −$5
sports 10% +$108
crypto 6% −$1
economics 3% $0
world 2% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 78 +4.2% -5.7% 13% 8% -9.0%
all 89 +3.8% -6.1% 15% 10% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.1% 10% -8.9%
10% -15.1% 6% -17.6%
15% -23.3% 6% -25.6%
20% -30.8% 4% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$0 · ×26.16 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.47 per $1 lost it wins $4.47
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized+$96
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses13 / 76
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)89 / 90
History coverage116d
Avg bet$155
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 89 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 21 $214 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 14 $32 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 05 $17 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $154 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $130 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $189 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 24 $183 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 24 $179 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $177 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 21 $262 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $135 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $171 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $152 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 19 $133 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $146 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $180 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $281 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $184 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $149 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $134 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $151 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $144 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $164 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $327 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 13 $135 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $163 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $183 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 10 $184 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $171 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $141 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $150 $0 -0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 07 $194 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 07 $243 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $157 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? Apr 06 $362 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 06 $178 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 06 $173 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 06 $150 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 05 $358 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 05 $164 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 05 $182 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $193 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 04 $187 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 04 $340 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 04 $200 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 04 $183 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 04 $369 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 03 $259 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 03 $423 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Apr 02 $187 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $27 1h
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $32 1h
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $32 7d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $32 7d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 99¢ $32 11d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $17 16d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $17 21d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $154 26d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $154 27d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $130 30d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $130 37d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $189 56d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $189 56d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $183 58d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $183 58d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m SELL No 100¢ $179 58d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY No 100¢ $179 60d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $177 60d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $177 61d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $160 61d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $160 61d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $135 62d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $135 62d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $171 62d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $171 62d
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $152 62d
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $152 63d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $133 63d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $133 63d
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $146 63d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.99 · official $26.99 (match) · 242 history records