Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:56:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EA 0xeab1…8121 other 274 markets active 1h ago coverage 61d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 60d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (56 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$3,393 (+24%) realized +$3,399 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate35%126W / 235L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day56.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit15%portable
Net worth$263now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 61d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 99% −$619
crypto 0% −$11
sports 0% −$6
tech 0% $0
politics 0% −$1
world 0% −$1
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (56 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-1.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 130 +36.0% +23.1% 29% 29% -19.7%
≤30d 220 +27.4% +15.3% 37% 34% -12.1%
≤90d 361 +8.9% -1.5% 35% 31% -15.8%
all 361 +8.9% -1.5% 35% 31% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover56.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.5% 31% -15.8%
10% ← realistic here -10.9% 27% -23.9%
15% -19.5% 22% -31.2%
20% -27.4% 16% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late +36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$17 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$263
Realized+$3,399
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses126 / 235
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions15
Markets (closed)361 / 274
History coverage61d ⚠
Avg bet$51
Trades / day56.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit15%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 361 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? No 51¢ 100¢ $51 $100 +$49 (+95%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 76¢ 82¢ $38 $41 +$4 (+9%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 67¢ 57¢ $34 $29 −$5 (-14%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $18 $20 +$1 (+5%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 23¢ 32¢ $11 $16 +$4 (+37%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? No 12¢ 3¢ $55 $15 −$40 (-72%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $16 $14 −$2 (-13%)
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-30%)
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $7 $6 −$0 (-7%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Yes 35¢ 36¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $16 $5 −$11 (-67%)
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $4 $2 −$1 (-33%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-14%)
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-6%)
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 225 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 16 to February 18, 2026 Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Jun 17 $5 +$191 +3817%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Jun 17 $9 −$10 -110%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Jun 17 $55 −$12 -22%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026? Jun 17 $22 −$57 -254%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Jun 17 $11 −$7 -64%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 19 to March 21, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026? Jun 17 $24 −$94 -397%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 9 to April 11, 2026? Jun 17 $42 −$74 -178%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in February? Jun 17 $17 −$15 -88%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Jun 17 $20 −$38 -191%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 23 to February 25, 2026 Jun 17 $1 −$4 -444%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026? Jun 17 $60 −$66 -110%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Jun 17 $3 −$1 -24%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 19 to March 21, 2026? Jun 17 $29 +$20 +69%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Jun 17 $14 −$11 -78%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on February 5? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026? Jun 17 $56 −$50 -89%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on February 7? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Jun 17 $1 +$5 +514%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -116%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026? Jun 17 $1 −$2 -170%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Jun 17 $164 +$98 +60%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 March 2-8? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026? Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? Jun 17 $45 −$10 -22%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026? Jun 17 $7 +$22 +311%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026? Jun 17 $8 −$25 -313%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? Jun 17 $213 −$181 -85%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? Jun 17 $34 −$28 -84%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026? Jun 17 $15 +$4 +26%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026? Jun 17 $4 +$9 +196%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 202 Jun 17 $5 −$11 -227%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026? Jun 17 $115 −$100 -87%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 12? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Jun 17 $28 −$29 -105%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Jun 17 $27 +$108 +404%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026? Jun 17 $15 +$7 +48%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Jun 17 $3 −$8 -274%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 2026 Jun 17 $43 −$43 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 6¢ $3 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 6¢ $0 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 7¢ $4 1h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 8¢ $8 1h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $14 1h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $9 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 7¢ $4 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 3h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 3h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 3h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 3h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 10¢ $5 4h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 4h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $7 4h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 4h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 27¢ $1 5h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 27¢ $2 5h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 5h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 38¢ $2 5h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 15¢ $8 5h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 5h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 5h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $6 5h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 5h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $6 6h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 7h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 7h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $9 7h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $8 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $262.75 · official $263.20 (match) · 3500 history records