Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T01:31:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
EA 0xeab1…d8f6 crypto 88 markets active 2h ago coverage 65d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$204 (-8%) realized +$31 · open −$235
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate73%62W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$171now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$133
7 days+$176
14 days+$176
30 days+$176
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 37% −$38
crypto 25% −$50
other 18% +$176
politics 18% −$446
world 2% +$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +7.3% -2.9% 73% 73% +3.4%
≤30d 15 +7.3% -2.9% 73% 73% +3.4%
≤90d 85 -2.6% -11.9% 73% 52% -12.9%
all 85 -2.6% -11.9% 73% 52% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 52% -12.9%
10% -20.3% 24% -21.3%
15% -28.0% 19% -28.9%
20% -35.1% 14% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$23 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$171
Realized+$31
Unrealized−$235
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses62 / 23
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions3
Markets (closed)85 / 88
History coverage65d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 85 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $101 $100 −$1 (-1%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Yes 55¢ 34¢ $100 $63 −$37 (-37%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $204 $8 −$196 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $45 −$45 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $28 +$17 +60%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $41 +$8 +20%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $36 +$10 +28%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $126 +$37 +29%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $353 −$29 -8%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $79 +$45 +57%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $30 +$10 +35%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $201 +$30 +15%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $155 +$67 +43%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $7 +$3 +39%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $59 +$25 +43%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $47 +$23 +48%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in Ap Apr 30 $10 +$1 +14%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April? Apr 30 $14 +$26 +192%
Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April? Apr 21 $10 +$9 +94%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Apr 21 $30 −$15 -51%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in third place in the first round Apr 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of Apr 17 $150 −$150 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Apr 15 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Apr 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Apr 15 $9 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Apr 15 $10 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Apr 15 $10 +$10 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Apr 15 $10 +$6 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Apr 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Apr 15 $20 −$3 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Apr 15 $9 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Apr 15 $30 +$9 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Apr 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Apr 15 $10 −$19 -195%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Apr 15 $10 −$19 -195%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Apr 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Apr 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Apr 15 $10 +$6 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Apr 15 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Apr 15 $10 +$22 +223%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Apr 15 $10 +$7 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Apr 15 $9 +$10 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Apr 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Apr 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Apr 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Apr 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Apr 15 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Apr 15 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Apr 15 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Apr 15 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Apr 15 $10 +$1 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $101 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Under 45¢ $35 2h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Under 45¢ $10 2h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 42¢ $21 2h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Under 83¢ $41 5h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 62¢ $28 5h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 81¢ $101 21h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 78¢ $36 21h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 64¢ $26 22h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 66¢ $5 24h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 23¢ $41 25h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Under 66¢ $3 25h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Under 66¢ $10 25h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Under 67¢ $33 25h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 72¢ $194 25h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 72¢ $22 25h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 62¢ $2 26h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 62¢ $6 26h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 62¢ $22 26h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 62¢ $1 26h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 75¢ $45 26h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 81¢ $43 26h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 81¢ $14 26h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 83¢ $124 28h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 53¢ $54 28h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 51¢ $26 28h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 66¢ $13 43h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 82¢ $12 43h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 82¢ $5 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $170.72 · official $170.73 (match) · 232 history records