Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:27:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EA 0xeab1…3817 other 47 markets active 6d ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$101 (-59%) realized −$101 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate96%45W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit30%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% −$103
other 19% $0
politics 13% +$2
economics 2% $0
weather 2% $0
tech 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 14 +1.4% -8.2% 100% 7% -2.5%
≤90d 26 +0.9% -8.7% 96% 4% -5.7%
all 47 -1.4% -10.7% 96% 2% -63.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 2% -63.4%
10% -19.3% 0% -66.9%
15% -27.1% 0% -70.1%
20% -34.2% 0% -73.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 90% · top 2 91% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -60% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$103 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$101
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses45 / 2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)47 / 47
History coverage136d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit30%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 47 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $11 +$2 +17%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Apr 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Apr 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Apr 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Apr 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Apr 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Apr 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Apr 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Apr 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Apr 10 $1 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Apr 10 $1 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Apr 10 $1 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stag Feb 28 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Feb 28 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Feb 28 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 2026 Feb 28 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Feb 28 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Feb 28 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Feb 28 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Feb 28 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Feb 28 $1 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Feb 28 $1 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026? Feb 28 $1 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026 Feb 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026 Feb 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026 Feb 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 20 Feb 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 20 Feb 18 $1 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 20 Feb 18 $1 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 20 Feb 18 $1 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 20 Feb 18 $1 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 20 Feb 18 $1 $0 +1%
Will Trump’s Greenland Tariffs go into effect for The Netherlands by F Feb 18 $1 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $1 5d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 5d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 5d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 5d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $1 5d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 99¢ $1 5d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $1 5d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $1 5d
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 5d
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day BUY No 100¢ $1 5d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 15d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 15d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 15d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 15d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 15d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 15d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 15d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 15d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 15d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 15d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $6 15d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 15d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 15d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 15d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 15d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 15d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 154 history records