Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:35:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EA 0xeaae…0a3d world 79 markets active 0h ago coverage 553d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$50 (+1%) realized +$50 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate49%38W / 40L
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% +$4
sports 21% +$4
other 12% +$47
politics 6% −$9
weather 3% −$2
crypto 1% +$6
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.6% -10.0% 57% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 20 -3.9% -13.1% 35% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 29 -2.8% -12.1% 38% 0% -10.1%
all 78 +3.4% -6.5% 49% 14% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.5% 14% -8.3%
10% -15.4% 12% -17.1%
15% -23.6% 8% -25.1%
20% -31.1% 5% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$5 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

553d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$50
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses38 / 40
Open positions1
Markets (closed)78 / 79
History coverage553d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 55¢ 52¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 21 $89 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 20 $240 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $89 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $2 $0 -8%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $27 $0 +2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $37 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $96 +$2 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $200 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $54 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $89 −$2 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $30 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $98 −$2 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $285 +$5 +2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $244 +$4 +2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $5 −$1 -15%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $46 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 02 $88 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 27 $30 −$14 -45%
Will Alberta join the US? May 24 $3 $0 +0%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 22 $5 −$1 -13%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 20 $1 $0 +3%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 20 $12 $0 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 19 $12 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 19 $44 −$6 -12%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 18 $73 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 18 $92 −$1 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 15 $102 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 15 $125 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Bitcoin" or "Crypto" at CPAC conference on Saturday? Apr 06 $0 $0 +5%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Dec 10 $1 $0 +3%
Will Jumaane Williams win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 25 $2 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $2 $0 +1%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 05 $2 $0 +2%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian Presidential election by 0-5%? May 20 $8 +$1 +9%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 26 $2 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $79000 and $81000 on Mar 21? Mar 22 $8 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on March 5? Mar 06 $105 $0 +0%
Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-03-05? Mar 05 $101 −$2 -2%
Trail Blazers vs. Celtics Mar 04 $147 −$42 -29%
Will Brentford vs. Everton end in a draw? Mar 04 $18 −$18 -100%
South Alabama vs. Southern Mississippi Mar 04 $106 +$41 +39%
Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? Feb 26 $66 −$10 -15%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025? Feb 26 $39 +$5 +14%
Will the highest temperature in London be 42°F or below on February 26 Feb 25 $3 −$3 -92%
Will Kieran Culkin win Best Actor at the 2025 SAG Award for "A Real Pa Feb 25 $54 +$6 +11%
Will Trump's 538 approval rating be between 47.5% and 47.9% on Februar Feb 24 $49 $0 -0%
Capitals vs. Penguins Feb 23 $41 +$13 +32%
Will Ilie Bolojan win the Romanian presidential election? Feb 23 $48 +$1 +2%
Will Mohamed Salah be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Feb 22 $40 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $89 8m
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $48 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $41 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $20 18h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $79 20h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $98 22h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 83¢ $89 40h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 83¢ $89 45h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $6 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $6 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $6 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $6 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $10 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $28 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $37 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $98 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $96 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $31 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $36 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $2 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $12 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $53 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.46 · official $0.00 (match) · 333 history records