Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:38:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EA 0xeaac…d71d sports 755 markets active 0h ago coverage 13d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 13d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (242 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$16,981 (+8%) realized +$17,225 · open −$244
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate40%311W / 463L
Whale WR52%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$287per market
Trades / day242.2pace
Fees−$3,061est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$29,802now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 13d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% +$56,928
other 25% +$7,998
crypto 1% +$354
world 1% +$206
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (242 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 551 -25.3% -32.4% 30% 26% -31.9%
≤30d 774 -3.9% -13.1% 40% 36% -14.3%
≤90d 774 -3.9% -13.1% 40% 36% -14.3%
all 774 -3.9% -13.1% 40% 36% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover242.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.1% 36% -14.3%
10% ← realistic here -21.4% 34% -22.5%
15% -29.0% 33% -30.0%
20% -36.0% 32% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 52% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +73% → late -81% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$292 vs −$220 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$29,802
Realized+$17,225
Unrealized−$244
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses311 / 463
Whale WR (big bets)52%
Est. fees paid−$3,061
Open positions101
Markets (closed)774 / 755
History coverage13d ⚠
Avg bet$287
Trades / day242.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 101 History 774 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Alexandra Eala 45¢ 100¢ $526 $1,168 +$642 (+122%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 29¢ 38¢ $600 $785 +$185 (+31%)
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 11¢ 14¢ $600 $753 +$153 (+25%)
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 26¢ 32¢ $600 $727 +$127 (+21%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $750 $700 −$50 (-7%)
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland Scotland 23¢ 25¢ $599 $651 +$52 (+9%)
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 59¢ 58¢ $650 $639 −$11 (-2%)
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 46¢ 48¢ $600 $639 +$39 (+6%)
Will Germany reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 56¢ 60¢ $600 $634 +$34 (+6%)
Will Brazil reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 51¢ 54¢ $600 $625 +$25 (+4%)
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 35¢ 34¢ $650 $625 −$25 (-4%)
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova Katerina Siniakova 36¢ 38¢ $600 $625 +$25 (+4%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 29¢ 30¢ $600 $624 +$24 (+4%)
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 15¢ 16¢ $600 $620 +$20 (+3%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 25¢ 28¢ $550 $615 +$65 (+12%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $600 $612 +$12 (+2%)
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Jerome Kym Titouan Droguet 63¢ 64¢ $600 $607 +$7 (+1%)
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score No 52¢ 52¢ $600 $606 +$6 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Playoffs INOX Division 64¢ 64¢ $600 $605 +$5 (+1%)
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 39¢ 44¢ $528 $599 +$71 (+13%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) DR Congo 48¢ 48¢ $600 $594 −$6 (-1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $600 $593 −$7 (-1%)
Will Novak Djokovic be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $650 $590 −$60 (-9%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Under 29¢ 28¢ $600 $589 −$11 (-2%)
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Denis Shapovalov Denis Shapovalov 22¢ 22¢ $600 $586 −$14 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 399 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Roland Garros ATP: Michael Zheng vs Dino Prizmic Jun 17 $81 −$81 -100%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs TheMongolz (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Playoffs Jun 17 $245 −$245 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 17 $44 −$44 -100%
Will FK Epitsentr Dunaivtsi win on 2026-04-27? Jun 17 $145 −$145 -100%
Will AC Sparta Praha win on 2026-05-03? Jun 17 $200 −$200 -100%
Parma: Lisa Pigato vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 17 $284 −$284 -100%
BMW Open: Denis Shapovalov vs Alex Molcan Jun 17 $296 −$296 -100%
Spread: San Jose Earthquakes (-1.5) Jun 17 $400 −$400 -100%
Connecticut Sun vs. Seattle Storm Jun 17 $400 −$400 -100%
Shenzhen Leopards vs. Ningbo Rockets Jun 17 $293 −$293 -100%
CD Tolima vs. Atlético Nacional: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 17 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Ceará SC win on 2026-05-31? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
RC Deportivo La Coruña vs. FC Andorra: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Pakistan Super League: Peshawar Zalmi vs Lahore Qalandars Jun 17 $246 −$246 -100%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-04-17? Jun 17 $293 −$293 -100%
Will Stade Brestois 29 win on 2026-05-17? Jun 17 $400 −$400 -100%
Feyenoord Rotterdam vs. AZ: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $400 −$400 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? Jun 17 $400 −$400 -100%
Abidjan: Gauthier Onclin vs Mert Alkaya Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Francavilla: Gustavo Heide vs August Holmgren Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Geneva Open: Raphael Collignon vs Casper Ruud Jun 17 $350 −$350 -100%
Will São Paulo FC win on 2026-05-26? Jun 17 $48 −$48 -100%
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Tomas Etcheverry vs Terence Atmane Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will FC Annecy win on 2026-04-24? Jun 17 $197 −$197 -100%
Will FK Dinamo Makhachkala win on 2026-04-12? Jun 17 $244 −$244 -100%
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Linda Noskova vs Elina Svitolina Jun 17 $294 −$294 -100%
Roland Garros WTA (Doubles): Perez/Schuurs vs Boulter/Putintseva Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will CA Talleres win on 2026-04-19? Jun 17 $197 −$197 -100%
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-05-27? Jun 17 $350 −$350 -100%
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Antonia Ruzic vs Liudmila Samsonova Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Barcelona Open: Mariano Navone vs Andrey Rublev Jun 17 $295 −$295 -100%
Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2026-05-24? Jun 17 $155 −$147 -95%
Toronto Tempo vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 174.5 Jun 17 $400 −$400 -100%
PSV vs. FC Twente '65: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Will San Diego Wave FC win on 2026-05-31? Jun 17 $700 −$700 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $650 −$650 -100%
Real Sociedad de Fútbol B vs. CD Mirandés: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Zagreb: Stefan Dostanic vs Chris Rodesch Jun 17 $227 −$227 -100%
Will FBC Melgar win on 2026-05-22? Jun 17 $450 −$450 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Mattia Bellucci vs Martin Landaluce Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2026-04-17? Jun 17 $300 −$300 -100%
Francavilla: Facundo Acosta vs Henry Bernet Jun 17 $250 −$250 -100%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Casper Ruud Jun 17 $247 −$206 -83%
Hamburg European Open (Doubles): Krawietz/Puetz vs Doumbia/Reboul Jun 17 $204 −$204 -100%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-03? Jun 17 $203 −$203 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Antonia Ruzic vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 17 $250 −$250 -100%
Madrid Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Jun 17 $246 −$246 -100%
Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Zhizhen Jun 17 $500 −$500 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 62¢ $6 4m
Will Sweden reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 62¢ $6 4m
Will Sweden reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 62¢ $6 4m
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 22¢ $33 5m
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 47¢ $15 8m
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 27¢ $17 20m
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova BUY Katerina Siniakova 36¢ $612 30m
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 49¢ $2 30m
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 49¢ $10 30m
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 49¢ $5 30m
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 49¢ $5 31m
ITF Blois: Alevtina Ibragimova vs Mina Hodzic BUY Alevtina Ibragimova 52¢ $74 1h
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 49¢ $2 1h
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 55¢ $5 1h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse BUY Ignacio Buse 23¢ $614 1h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse SELL Brandon Nakashima 77¢ $99 1h
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Maxim Mrva BUY Gustavo Heide 60¢ $30 1h
Will Brazil reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 54¢ $34 1h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 64¢ $12 1h
Will Brazil reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 54¢ $55 1h
Will Brazil reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 54¢ $4 1h
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Jerome Kym BUY Titouan Droguet 63¢ $439 1h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 64¢ $10 1h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 64¢ $150 1h
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 23¢ $20 1h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 64¢ $249 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $595 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY INOX Division 64¢ $600 2h
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 46¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29,801.72 · official $29,772.97 (match) · 3500 history records