Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:17:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EA 0xeaa9…1737 other 341 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (83 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,973 (-8%) realized −$2,914 · open −$59
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate1%4W / 332L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$116per market
Trades / day83.3pace
Fees−$93est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$94now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$507
7 days−$1,913
14 days−$3,070
30 days−$3,070
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 30% −$527
other 28% −$1,286
finance 12% −$381
sports 11% −$232
tech 7% −$269
politics 6% −$309
culture 2% −$63
economics 2% −$26
weather 2% +$13
crypto 1% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (83 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 225 -9.7% -18.3% 2% 0% -16.3%
≤30d 336 -10.6% -19.2% 1% 0% -16.7%
≤90d 336 -10.6% -19.2% 1% 0% -16.7%
all 336 -10.6% -19.2% 1% 0% -16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover83.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.2% 0% -16.7%
10% ← realistic here -26.9% 0% -24.6%
15% -34.0% 0% -31.9%
20% -40.4% 0% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 83% · top 2 91% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$9 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$94
Realized−$2,914
Unrealized−$59
Win rate (resolved)1%
Wins / losses4 / 332
Est. fees paid−$93
Open positions5
Markets (closed)336 / 341
History coverage11d
Avg bet$116
Trades / day83.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 336 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will CarMax (KMX) beat quarterly earnings? Yes 77¢ 52¢ $46 $32 −$15 (-32%)
Will Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth be between 1.5% and 2%? Yes 26¢ 12¢ $65 $30 −$35 (-53%)
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? No 52¢ 32¢ $31 $19 −$12 (-39%)
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.70 Week of June 15 2026? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+25%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? No 87¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $216 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $7 $0 -2%
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $4.50 Week of June 1 Jun 15 $6 −$2 -28%
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m Jun 15 $126 −$2 -1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Jun 15 $465 −$21 -5%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.60 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $11 −$3 -28%
Hyperbeat FDV above $10M one day after launch? Jun 15 $6 $0 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $250 −$5 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $70 −$3 -5%
Will BULK launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 15 $51 −$9 -17%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $26 −$1 -5%
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in June? Jun 15 $48 −$12 -25%
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $52 −$1 -2%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdogan sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $166 −$18 -11%
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -24%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Jun 15 $257 −$13 -5%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 15 $5 $0 -0%
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 15 $390 −$18 -5%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $38 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 15? Jun 14 $16 −$1 -6%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Jun 14 $405 −$14 -4%
Will Natus Vincere reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 14 $83 −$40 -48%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 39 and 41 million views on day 2 Jun 14 $43 −$5 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 15? Jun 14 $35 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? Jun 14 $217 −$5 -2%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the Jun 14 $18 −$1 -5%
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? Jun 14 $70 −$5 -8%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 14 $170 −$4 -3%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 15? Jun 14 $5 $0 -8%
Will Cícero Lucena win the Governor of Paraíba election? Jun 14 $65 −$19 -29%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 14 $447 −$23 -5%
Will Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 14 $422 −$32 -8%
Will FalleN win a S-Tier event before June 30? Jun 14 $14 −$3 -19%
Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? Jun 14 $109 −$2 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $37 −$1 -3%
Will Pete Hegseth sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 14 $20 −$2 -8%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? Jun 14 $79 −$2 -2%
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 14 $92 −$9 -9%
Will Curaçao concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S Jun 14 $350 −$5 -2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 14 $35 $0 -1%
Will Rafael Leão be in Portugal's Starting 11? Jun 14 $47 −$1 -1%
Will Morocco go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 14 $193 −$5 -3%
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian Jun 14 $56 −$10 -17%
Will Brazil be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 14 $1 $0 -6%
Will Casemiro score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $7 −$1 -8%
Will Vinicius Jr. score 6+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $8 −$1 -10%
Will Morocco finish second in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Jun 14 $10 −$1 -5%
Will Hylo launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 14 $305 −$61 -20%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 14 $90 −$10 -11%
Will Brazil be the highest-scoring team in Group C during the Group St Jun 13 $57 −$7 -12%
Will 9+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA Wo Jun 13 $98 −$2 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $216 Week of June 15 2026? SELL Yes 59¢ $7 3m
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $216 Week of June 15 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $7 3m
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $4.50 Week of June 1 SELL No 3¢ $1 18m
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $4.50 Week of June 1 SELL No 3¢ $3 19m
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $4.50 Week of June 1 BUY No 4¢ $1 19m
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $4.50 Week of June 1 BUY No 4¢ $1 19m
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $4.50 Week of June 1 BUY No 4¢ $1 19m
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $4.50 Week of June 1 BUY No 4¢ $3 19m
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m SELL No 76¢ $124 58m
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m BUY No 77¢ $126 58m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $135 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $277 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $29 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $2 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $465 2h
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.60 Week of June 15 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $8 2h
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.60 Week of June 15 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $11 2h
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.70 Week of June 15 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 2h
Hyperbeat FDV above $10M one day after launch? SELL Yes 64¢ $6 2h
Hyperbeat FDV above $10M one day after launch? BUY Yes 64¢ $6 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 49¢ $245 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 50¢ $250 2h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 48¢ $66 2h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 49¢ $70 2h
Will BULK launch a token by June 30, 2027? SELL No 31¢ $37 3h
Will BULK launch a token by June 30, 2027? SELL No 34¢ $5 3h
Will BULK launch a token by June 30, 2027? BUY No 36¢ $51 3h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $24 3h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $26 3h
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in June? SELL No 42¢ $5 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $94.20 · official $93.45 (match) · 978 history records