Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:46:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
EA 0xeaa3…eec2 crypto 1109 markets active 0h ago coverage 51d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 51d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,397 (+1%) realized +$1,402 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%1102W / 4L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$87per market
Trades / day46.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$395now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$29
7 days−$29
14 days−$29
30 days+$151
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$493
other 0% −$45
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 +1.0% -8.6% 98% 2% -9.9%
≤30d 740 +0.7% -8.9% 99% 1% -9.3%
≤90d 1106 +0.7% -8.8% 100% 0% -9.1%
all 1106 +0.7% -8.8% 100% 0% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover46.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.8% 0% -9.1%
10% ← realistic here -17.6% 0% -17.8%
15% -25.5% 0% -25.7%
20% -32.8% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$14 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×8.96 per $1 lost it wins $8.96
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$395
Realized+$1,402
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses1102 / 4
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1106 / 1109
History coverage51d ⚠
Avg bet$87
Trades / day46.6
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1106 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin above 67,400 on June 15, 3PM ET? No 100¢ 98¢ $150 $148 −$2 (-1%)
Bitcoin above 66,200 on June 15, 3PM ET? Yes 100¢ 98¢ $150 $148 −$2 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin above 66,200 on June 15, 2PM ET? Jun 15 $150 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 67,600 on June 15, 2PM ET? Jun 15 $150 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 68,000 on June 15, 2PM ET? Jun 15 $150 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 69,000 on June 15, 2PM ET? Jun 15 $150 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 68,400 on June 15, 2PM ET? Jun 15 $150 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 68,600 on June 15, 2PM ET? Jun 15 $150 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 68,200 on June 15, 2PM ET? Jun 15 $150 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 69,200 on June 15, 2PM ET? Jun 15 $150 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 68,800 on June 15, 2PM ET? Jun 15 $101 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 67,800 on June 15, 2PM ET? Jun 15 $150 $0 +0%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $100 −$54 -54%
Bitcoin above 66,600 on June 15, 1PM ET? Jun 15 $150 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 65,000 on June 15, 1PM ET? Jun 15 $150 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 66,400 on June 15, 1PM ET? Jun 15 $150 $0 +0%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin above 65,000 on June 14, 11PM ET? Jun 15 $150 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 66,800 on June 14, 11PM ET? Jun 15 $150 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 66,000 on June 14, 11PM ET? Jun 15 $150 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 67,000 on June 14, 11PM ET? Jun 15 $150 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 66,400 on June 14, 11PM ET? Jun 15 $150 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 66,200 on June 14, 11PM ET? Jun 15 $150 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 67,600 on June 14, 10PM ET? Jun 15 $150 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 64,400 on June 14, 10PM ET? Jun 15 $180 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 65,000 on June 14, 10PM ET? Jun 15 $150 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 64,600 on June 14, 10PM ET? Jun 15 $150 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 67,400 on June 14, 10PM ET? Jun 15 $150 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 67,200 on June 14, 10PM ET? Jun 15 $150 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 67,000 on June 14, 10PM ET? Jun 15 $150 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 66,800 on June 14, 10PM ET? Jun 15 $150 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 66,600 on June 14, 10PM ET? Jun 15 $150 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 66,200 on June 14, 10PM ET? Jun 15 $150 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 64,000 on June 14, 10PM ET? Jun 15 $150 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 64,200 on June 14, 10PM ET? Jun 15 $737 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin above 64,400 on June 14, 9PM ET? Jun 15 $138 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 66,600 on June 14, 9PM ET? Jun 15 $150 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 66,800 on June 14, 9PM ET? Jun 15 $150 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 66,000 on June 14, 9PM ET? Jun 15 $22 $0 +2%
Bitcoin above 66,600 on June 14, 8PM ET? Jun 15 $364 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin above 64,800 on June 14, 8PM ET? Jun 15 $358 +$2 +0%
Bitcoin above 63,800 on June 14, 8PM ET? Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin above 66,200 on June 14, 8PM ET? Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin above 64,400 on June 14, 8PM ET? Jun 15 $453 +$2 +0%
Bitcoin above 64,200 on June 14, 8PM ET? Jun 15 $279 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin above 64,600 on June 14, 8PM ET? Jun 15 $95 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 64,000 on June 14, 8PM ET? Jun 15 $95 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 63,600 on June 14, 8PM ET? Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin above 66,400 on June 14, 8PM ET? Jun 15 $184 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin above 65,000 on June 14, 8PM ET? Jun 15 $272 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin above 75,800 on May 30, 8PM ET? May 31 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin above 74,400 on May 30, 8PM ET? May 31 $150 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin above 67,400 on June 15, 3PM ET? BUY No 100¢ $24 4m
Bitcoin above 67,400 on June 15, 3PM ET? BUY No 100¢ $26 4m
Bitcoin above 67,400 on June 15, 3PM ET? BUY No 100¢ $50 4m
Bitcoin above 67,400 on June 15, 3PM ET? BUY No 100¢ $50 4m
Bitcoin above 66,200 on June 15, 3PM ET? BUY Yes 100¢ $24 6m
Bitcoin above 66,200 on June 15, 3PM ET? BUY Yes 100¢ $26 6m
Bitcoin above 66,200 on June 15, 3PM ET? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 6m
Bitcoin above 66,200 on June 15, 3PM ET? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 6m
Bitcoin above 68,800 on June 15, 2PM ET? BUY No 100¢ $25 57m
Bitcoin above 68,800 on June 15, 2PM ET? BUY No 100¢ $26 57m
Bitcoin above 69,200 on June 15, 2PM ET? BUY No 100¢ $24 57m
Bitcoin above 69,200 on June 15, 2PM ET? BUY No 100¢ $26 57m
Bitcoin above 69,000 on June 15, 2PM ET? BUY No 100¢ $26 57m
Bitcoin above 68,800 on June 15, 2PM ET? BUY No 100¢ $26 57m
Bitcoin above 69,000 on June 15, 2PM ET? BUY No 100¢ $24 57m
Bitcoin above 68,800 on June 15, 2PM ET? BUY No 100¢ $24 57m
Bitcoin above 69,000 on June 15, 2PM ET? BUY No 100¢ $50 57m
Bitcoin above 69,000 on June 15, 2PM ET? BUY No 100¢ $50 57m
Bitcoin above 69,200 on June 15, 2PM ET? BUY No 100¢ $51 57m
Bitcoin above 69,200 on June 15, 2PM ET? BUY No 100¢ $49 57m
Bitcoin above 68,400 on June 15, 2PM ET? BUY No 100¢ $26 57m
Bitcoin above 68,400 on June 15, 2PM ET? BUY No 100¢ $24 57m
Bitcoin above 68,400 on June 15, 2PM ET? BUY No 100¢ $51 57m
Bitcoin above 68,600 on June 15, 2PM ET? BUY No 100¢ $49 57m
Bitcoin above 68,600 on June 15, 2PM ET? BUY No 100¢ $51 57m
Bitcoin above 68,400 on June 15, 2PM ET? BUY No 100¢ $49 57m
Bitcoin above 68,600 on June 15, 2PM ET? BUY No 100¢ $26 57m
Bitcoin above 68,600 on June 15, 2PM ET? BUY No 100¢ $24 57m
Bitcoin above 68,000 on June 15, 2PM ET? BUY No 100¢ $24 57m
Bitcoin above 68,000 on June 15, 2PM ET? BUY No 100¢ $26 57m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $394.59 · official $394.59 (match) · 3500 history records