Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:48:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
EA 0xeaa2…87ea crypto 58 markets active 1h ago coverage 273d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$212 (-1%) realized −$208 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate85%47W / 8L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$456per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$898now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$16
30 days+$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 57% +$269
economics 16% +$129
finance 11% +$41
tech 10% −$577
other 6% +$43
politics 0% −$121
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +1.7% -8.0% 100% 0% -7.7%
≤90d 7 +1.2% -8.5% 100% 0% -8.4%
all 55 +0.2% -9.3% 85% 16% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 16% -10.3%
10% -18.0% 4% -18.9%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.7%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$854) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$94 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

273d coverage
Net worth$898
Realized−$208
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses47 / 8
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)55 / 58
History coverage273d
Avg bet$456
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 91¢ 90¢ $634 $631 −$3 (-1%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $134 $134 −$0 (-0%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 99¢ 98¢ $133 $133 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Jun 13 $621 +$16 +3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? Jun 04 $264 +$2 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 19 $264 +$1 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 14 $870 +$16 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? Apr 29 $851 +$19 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in March? Apr 07 $850 +$1 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 29 $847 +$3 +0%
US government shutdown by October 1? Mar 25 $122 −$122 -100%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 25 $719 +$116 +16%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Mar 22 $634 +$1 +0%
Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch? Mar 06 $205 +$11 +5%
Will DeepSeek have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 09 $334 −$6 -2%
Will xAI have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 09 $28 $0 -1%
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 09 $854 −$590 -69%
Will Justin Sun meet with Elon Musk in 2026? Feb 06 $79 +$21 +26%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $140 end of January? Feb 03 $11 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $250 end of January? Feb 03 $79 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA dip to $128 in January? Jan 31 $117 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA dip to $108 in January? Jan 30 $160 +$1 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $150 end of January? Jan 28 $24 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in January? Jan 28 $679 +$1 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $130 end of January? Jan 26 $142 +$1 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 21 $950 +$14 +1%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$8B one day after launch? Dec 30 $214 +$3 +1%
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? Dec 30 $97 +$12 +13%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 24 $211 +$3 +2%
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? Dec 24 $902 +$49 +5%
Ethereum all time high by December 31? Dec 11 $94 +$4 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 05 $202 +$8 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in November? Nov 21 $800 +$102 +13%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in November? Nov 21 $261 +$35 +14%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 16 $203 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in October? Nov 02 $286 +$2 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $135k in October? Nov 02 $755 +$5 +1%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k or $130k first? Oct 30 $12 +$1 +8%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in October? Oct 28 $1,028 +$13 +1%
Will the Government shutdown end October 15+? Oct 16 $5 +$1 +20%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $4,900 on October 15? Oct 16 $1,016 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,900 and $5,000 on October 14? Oct 14 $62 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,900 on October 14? Oct 14 $953 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $132,000 and $134,000 on October Oct 14 $1,014 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $124,000 on October 12? Oct 13 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $5,000 on October 12? Oct 13 $1,002 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $128,000 and $130,000 on October Oct 12 $1,223 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,800 and $4,900 on October 10? Oct 11 $1,219 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $116,000 on October 9? Oct 10 $103 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $210 on October 9? Oct 10 $1,119 +$1 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 09 $1,118 +$1 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 09 $1,119 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,600 on October 8? Oct 09 $105 +$3 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $133 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $134 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $637 4d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $637 10d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $268 18d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? SELL No 98¢ $152 19d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? SELL No 98¢ $98 20d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? SELL No 98¢ $1 20d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? SELL No 98¢ $10 20d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? SELL No 98¢ $5 20d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $264 30d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? SELL No 100¢ $265 35d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? BUY No 99¢ $264 39d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $621 39d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 99¢ $886 40d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 97¢ $870 47d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? SELL No 100¢ $106 56d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? SELL No 100¢ $100 56d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? SELL No 100¢ $125 56d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? SELL No 100¢ $126 56d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? SELL No 100¢ $98 56d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? SELL No 100¢ $100 56d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? SELL No 100¢ $20 56d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? SELL No 100¢ $34 56d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? SELL No 100¢ $100 56d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? SELL No 100¢ $49 56d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? SELL No 100¢ $5 56d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? SELL No 100¢ $7 56d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? BUY No 98¢ $851 77d
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in March? BUY No 100¢ $850 86d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $897.50 · official $897.50 (match) · 152 history records