Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:06:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EA 0xea9f…f4df other 243 markets active 2h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$66 (-0%) realized −$66 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%10W / 233L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$206per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$18
14 days−$30
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$38
sports 25% −$20
politics 8% −$6
culture 6% −$6
economics 5% −$7
crypto 5% −$3
world 3% +$2
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 71 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 186 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 243 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 87% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$66
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses10 / 233
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)243 / 243
History coverage127d
Avg bet$206
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 243 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $389 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $321 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $53 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $513 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $296 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $53 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $472 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $703 −$2 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $742 −$2 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $506 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $554 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 15 $170 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $305 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $344 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $97 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $656 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $137 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $718 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $359 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $236 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $178 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $288 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $548 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $270 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $191 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $56 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $122 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 10 $151 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $445 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $493 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $266 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $415 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $142 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 09 $305 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $494 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $332 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $252 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $129 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $743 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 06 $149 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $292 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $203 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $280 $0 +0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $322 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $206 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $318 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $262 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $353 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $171 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 01 $247 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $53 2h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $53 4h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $53 5h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $53 6h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $53 8h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $53 10h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $53 11h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $53 12h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $53 15h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $53 16h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $53 18h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $53 19h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $53 20h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $53 22h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $53 24h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $53 26h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $53 26h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $53 28h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $53 36h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $54 37h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $54 39h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $54 40h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $54 42h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $54 43h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $54 2d
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $54 2d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $54 2d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $54 2d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $54 2d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $54 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1321 history records