Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T17:22:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EA 0xea9e…9c33 world 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 448d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate34%11W / 21L
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% $0
other 34% $0
sports 5% $0
politics 4% $0
crypto 1% $0
tech 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.0% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 10 -0.0% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 20 -1.1% -10.5% 20% 0% -9.5%
all 32 -0.4% -9.8% 34% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 67% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

448d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses11 / 21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage448d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Yes 35¢ 35¢ $39 $39 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 25 $37 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 24 $12 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $39 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $43 $0 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $40 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $39 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $35 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $28 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 18 $39 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $3 −$1 -24%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $29 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 25 $20 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 24 $35 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $35 +$1 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 24 $39 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 23 $35 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 23 $36 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $36 $0 +0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $38 $0 -0%
Will Benfica win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 14 $1 $0 +2%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 01 $9 $0 +1%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 05 $9 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? Jun 02 $2 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? May 08 $1 $0 +2%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 06 $2 $0 +1%
Will Meta have the top AI model on April 30? May 06 $2 $0 +3%
Will Juventus win the Serie A? May 06 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Apr 07 $17 $0 -0%
Will Atalanta win the Serie A? Apr 05 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2025 World Series? Apr 04 $23 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Roger Ver in his first 100 days? Apr 03 $22 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 35¢ $39 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $23 13h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $23 17h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 13¢ $7 19h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 19h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 21h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 21h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 21h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $39 25h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $39 25h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 41h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 43h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 43h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $40 43h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $40 43h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $39 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $39 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $6 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $8 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $14 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $39 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $39 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $35 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $35 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $28 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $28 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $39 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $39 7d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 29d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.85 · official $38.85 (match) · 87 history records