Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T16:37:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
EA 0xea9e…068d crypto 69 markets active 2h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate54%35W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$91
14 days+$91
30 days+$85
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 60% −$29
sports 21% −$26
other 19% +$111
politics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +167.7% +142.2% 100% 100% +156.9%
≤30d 16 +28.6% +16.4% 56% 56% +18.9%
≤90d 16 +28.6% +16.4% 56% 56% +18.9%
all 65 +2.8% -7.0% 54% 40% -3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.0% 40% -3.6%
10% -15.9% 34% -12.8%
15% -24.0% 25% -21.2%
20% -31.5% 20% -28.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +31% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$7 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses35 / 30
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)65 / 69
History coverage138d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Jun 23 $31 +$73 +238%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $19 +$19 +98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $30 −$2 -6%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $41 −$35 -86%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $20 +$16 +79%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 +$11 +105%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$20 +101%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $10 +$16 +158%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $10 +$9 +89%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$14 +139%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +44%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 23? Mar 17 $3 −$3 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 17? Mar 17 $11 −$8 -72%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 17? Mar 17 $16 −$4 -27%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 12? Mar 10 $14 +$2 +17%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 10? Mar 10 $16 −$3 -17%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 9? Mar 09 $8 +$8 +95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 12? Mar 09 $13 −$5 -37%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 6? Mar 06 $8 +$6 +78%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 5? Mar 05 $20 −$13 -63%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 9? Mar 04 $16 +$4 +26%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March? Mar 01 $21 −$5 -22%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 5? Mar 01 $21 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 5? Feb 27 $24 −$3 -12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 26? Feb 26 $74 −$5 -7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 3? Feb 26 $35 −$12 -33%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 26? Feb 26 $20 −$3 -15%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 3? Feb 25 $26 +$8 +29%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 28? Feb 25 $10 +$3 +28%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 27? Feb 25 $20 +$6 +31%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? Feb 25 $20 −$14 -68%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on February 24? Feb 24 $27 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on February 24? Feb 24 $5 +$1 +25%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on February 25? Feb 24 $5 $0 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on February 26? Feb 24 $5 +$3 +52%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on February 26? Feb 24 $5 +$2 +41%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 23? Feb 23 $8 +$26 +306%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 22? Feb 22 $8 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 21? Feb 21 $8 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 20? Feb 20 $8 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 20? Feb 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on February 20? Feb 20 $8 +$1 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on February 19? Feb 19 $8 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 18? Feb 17 $8 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 16? Feb 16 $8 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 73¢ $35 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 91¢ $38 6d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 45¢ $19 7d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND BUY 29¢ $31 7d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $10 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $29 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $25 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 14d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 6¢ $5 14d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $20 14d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 15d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $20 15d
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $10 15d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $21 15d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $41 16d
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $5 16d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $20 17d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $10 17d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY 51¢ $10 17d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 19¢ $10 17d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 17¢ $10 17d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $5 17d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $10 17d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 49¢ $20 17d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $19 17d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 88¢ $24 17d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $10 17d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 18d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 18d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $10 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.76 · official $34.76 (match) · 143 history records