Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:07:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
EA 0xea93…29b0 crypto 706 markets active 0h ago coverage 103d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 102d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,303 (-8%) realized −$5,304 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate73%514W / 191L
Whale WR46%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$99per market
Trades / day28.5pace
Fees−$189est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$115now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 103d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% −$183
crypto 46% −$1,048
other 2% −$391
world 0% −$62
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 -9.7% -18.3% 55% 47% -8.8%
≤30d 59 -9.4% -18.0% 56% 46% -9.1%
≤90d 212 -8.6% -17.3% 65% 47% -14.4%
all 705 -2.4% -11.7% 73% 47% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.7% 47% -11.7%
10% ← realistic here -20.2% 18% -20.1%
15% -27.9% 11% -27.9%
20% -34.9% 7% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 46% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +1% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$52 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$115
Realized−$5,304
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses514 / 191
Whale WR (big bets)46%
Est. fees paid−$189
Open positions1
Markets (closed)705 / 706
History coverage103d ⚠
Avg bet$99
Trades / day28.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 705 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Under 57¢ 57¢ $114 $115 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $75 +$25 +34%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $141 +$59 +42%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $71 +$27 +39%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $75 −$22 -30%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $167 +$18 +11%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $256 −$6 -2%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $161 +$7 +4%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $167 +$33 +20%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $81 +$19 +23%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $80 −$52 -65%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $139 +$21 +16%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $292 +$48 +16%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $157 +$43 +27%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $45 −$6 -13%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $75 +$10 +13%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $121 +$79 +65%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $127 +$73 +57%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $66 +$34 +52%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $35 −$21 -59%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $128 −$88 -69%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $30 −$16 -55%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $33 −$17 -51%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $48 −$47 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $79 +$69 +87%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $12 +$8 +66%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $70 +$30 +43%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $101 +$73 +72%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $32 −$18 -56%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $16 −$9 -58%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $50 +$13 +26%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $30 +$22 +74%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $47 −$21 -45%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $100 −$93 -93%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $201 −$196 -98%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $101 −$92 -91%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $4 $0 +6%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $101 +$36 +36%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $100 +$3 +3%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $65 −$13 -20%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $58 −$8 -15%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $301 +$56 +18%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $126 −$62 -49%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $400 +$16 +4%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $301 +$43 +14%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $59 −$49 -84%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $268 +$39 +14%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $90 −$54 -60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $115 3m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 98¢ $98 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 74¢ $75 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 54¢ $53 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 70¢ $71 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 75¢ $75 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 70¢ $141 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 60¢ $55 4h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 85¢ $85 4h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 45¢ $28 4h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 30¢ $74 4h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 13¢ $12 4h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 53¢ $92 5h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 53¢ $5 5h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 53¢ $5 5h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 53¢ $5 5h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 83¢ $167 6h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 68¢ $137 6h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 93¢ $93 16h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 75¢ $75 16h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 80¢ $161 17h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 27¢ $7 20h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 29¢ $21 20h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 81¢ $81 20h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 83¢ $167 20h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 80¢ $80 20h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 80¢ $23 21h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 80¢ $100 21h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 80¢ $37 21h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 69¢ $81 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $115.00 · official $115.00 (match) · 3500 history records