Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:24:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EA 0xea93…e6eb other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$29 (-6%) realized −$29 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate67%4W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day16.0pace
Kalshi-fit30%portable
Net worth$140now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% −$58
world 22% +$10
crypto 11% +$5
politics 7% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-32.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -25.7% -32.7% 67% 17% -22.2%
≤30d 6 -25.7% -32.7% 67% 17% -22.2%
≤90d 6 -25.7% -32.7% 67% 17% -22.2%
all 6 -25.7% -32.7% 67% 17% -22.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.7% 17% -22.2%
10% -39.2% 0% -29.6%
15% -45.1% 0% -36.4%
20% -50.4% 0% -42.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 81% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$31 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$140
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses4 / 2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)6 / 10
History coverage1d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day16.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit30%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Yes 90¢ 99¢ $50 $55 +$5 (+10%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 19¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 44¢ 37¢ $30 $25 −$5 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $33 +$6 +18%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 25 $100 +$10 +10%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06- Jun 25 $15 −$14 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $51 −$48 -95%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $13 +$1 +10%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $100 +$2 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $139.74 · official $139.74 (match) · 17 history records