Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T17:26:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
EA 0xea8e…ee37 sports 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 147d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$680 (+5%) realized +$723 · open −$43
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate59%22W / 15L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$378per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$152est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$1,157now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$342
7 days+$240
14 days+$726
30 days+$477
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$279
other 3% +$286
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-23.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -21.0% -28.5% 50% 50% -1.9%
≤30d 21 -19.5% -27.2% 52% 48% -4.6%
≤90d 37 -14.9% -23.0% 59% 49% -5.3%
all 37 -14.9% -23.0% 59% 49% -5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.0% 49% -5.3%
10% -30.4% 38% -14.4%
15% -37.1% 30% -22.7%
20% -43.3% 19% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$212 vs −$270 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

147d coverage
Net worth$1,157
Realized+$723
Unrealized−$43
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses22 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$152
Open positions3
Markets (closed)37 / 40
History coverage147d
Avg bet$378
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Card) Rafael Fiziev 53¢ 50¢ $500 $469 −$31 (-6%)
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Under 59¢ 62¢ $400 $417 +$17 (+4%)
O/U 1.5 Rounds Over 56¢ 50¢ $300 $271 −$29 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Fight Night: Eric Nolan vs. Farman Hasanov (Welterweight, Prelims) Jun 27 $196 −$191 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Nursulton Ruziboev vs. Andrey Pulyaev (Middleweight, Jun 27 $403 +$144 +36%
UFC Fight Night: Theodor Berggren vs. Daniil Donchenko (Welterweight, Jun 27 $128 −$92 -72%
UFC Fight Night: Tahir Abdullayev vs. Jefferson Nascimento (Welterweig Jun 27 $203 +$197 +97%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $405 +$285 +70%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $113 −$112 -99%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $406 −$400 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, Jun 21 $1,426 +$410 +29%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $100 +$2 +2%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 18 $503 −$503 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $508 +$482 +95%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $804 +$130 +16%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $436 +$375 +86%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 13 $1,010 −$1,000 -99%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $153 −$150 -98%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 07 $151 +$72 +48%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $203 −$200 -99%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $152 −$150 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai Jun 07 $606 +$226 +37%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $1,434 +$1,052 +73%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $609 +$595 +98%
UFC 328: Roman Kopylov vs. Marco Tulio (Middleweight, Early Prelims) May 10 $201 +$32 +16%
UFC 328: Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki (Lightweight, Prelims) May 09 $507 −$500 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Gerald Meerschaert vs. Jacob Malkoun (Middleweight, M May 02 $201 +$65 +32%
UFC Fight Night: Themba Gorimbo vs. Jonathan Micallef (Welterweight, P May 02 $203 +$181 +89%
UFC Fight Night: Vince Morales vs. Colby Thicknesse (Bantamweight, Pre May 02 $7 −$7 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Dom Mar Fan vs. Kody Steele (Lightweight, Prelims) May 02 $329 +$109 +33%
UFC Fight Night: Sedriques Dumas vs. Jackson McVey (Middleweight, Prel Apr 26 $100 +$2 +2%
UFC Fight Night: Mayra Bueno Silva vs. Michelle Montague (Women's Bant Apr 26 $301 +$59 +20%
UFC Fight Night: Jafel Filho vs. Cody Durden (Flyweight, Prelims) Apr 25 $301 +$114 +38%
UFC Fight Night: Alexander Hernandez vs. Rafa Garcia (Lightweight, Pre Apr 25 $300 −$296 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Ryan Spann vs. Marcus Buchecha (Heavyweight, Prelims) Apr 25 $302 −$298 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Lucas Brennan vs. Francis Marshall (Lightweight, Prel Apr 25 $301 +$64 +21%
Will Victor Valenzuela win by KO or TKO? Apr 25 $100 +$1 +1%
UFC Fight Night: Max Griffin vs. Victor Valenzuela (Welterweight, Prel Apr 25 $643 +$57 +9%
UFC 325: Elliott vs. Micallef (Welterweight, Early Prelims) Apr 25 $48 −$48 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Fight Night: Eric Nolan vs. Farman Hasanov (Welterweight, Prelims) BUY Eric Nolan 24¢ $102 1h
UFC Fight Night: Eric Nolan vs. Farman Hasanov (Welterweight, Prelims) BUY Eric Nolan 23¢ $94 1h
UFC Fight Night: Nursulton Ruziboev vs. Andrey Pulyaev (Middleweight, SELL Nursulton Ruziboev 100¢ $547 2h
UFC Fight Night: Nursulton Ruziboev vs. Andrey Pulyaev (Middleweight, BUY Nursulton Ruziboev 73¢ $403 2h
UFC Fight Night: Theodor Berggren vs. Daniil Donchenko (Welterweight, SELL Theodor Berggren 10¢ $32 3h
UFC Fight Night: Tahir Abdullayev vs. Jefferson Nascimento (Welterweig BUY Tahir Abdullayev 50¢ $203 3h
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 56¢ $304 6h
UFC Fight Night: Theodor Berggren vs. Daniil Donchenko (Welterweight, BUY Theodor Berggren 19¢ $128 6h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 72¢ $113 2d
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $405 3d
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $406 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $405 4d
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Rafael Fiziev 53¢ $507 5d
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, BUY Navajo Stirling 78¢ $519 6d
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, BUY Navajo Stirling 77¢ $503 6d
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, BUY Navajo Stirling 76¢ $403 6d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 98¢ $100 9d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Ciryl Gane 99¢ $990 12d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 50¢ $508 12d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main SELL Sean OMalley 99¢ $933 12d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Sean OMalley 85¢ $804 12d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Under 53¢ $436 14d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Under 67¢ $1,010 14d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $153 14d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli 28¢ $102 20d
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY Spirit 67¢ $151 20d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY G2 53¢ $203 20d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner BUY GamerLegion 54¢ $152 20d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 82¢ $503 20d
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main BUY Gabriel Bonfim 74¢ $16 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,156.65 · official $1,156.65 (match) · 85 history records