Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:47:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
EA 0xea8c…fd98 sports 40 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$109 (+4%) realized +$109 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%15W / 22L
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day15.7pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$140now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% +$313
other 36% −$7
crypto 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -2.1% -11.4% 41% 41% +3.0%
≤30d 37 -2.1% -11.4% 41% 41% +3.0%
≤90d 37 -2.1% -11.4% 41% 41% +3.0%
all 37 -2.1% -11.4% 41% 41% +3.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 41% +3.0%
10% -19.9% 38% -6.8%
15% -27.6% 24% -15.8%
20% -34.7% 19% -24.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +14% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$65 vs −$30 · ×2.16 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.47 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$140
Realized+$109
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses15 / 22
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions3
Markets (closed)37 / 40
History coverage4d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day15.7
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun Toronto Tempo 59¢ 60¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 Under 60¢ 60¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? Jun 19 $3 +$4 +125%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $152 +$51 +33%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $101 +$27 +26%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $30 −$9 -29%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Morocco? Jun 19 $26 −$4 -14%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $11 −$1 -5%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $17 −$4 -21%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $40 −$36 -90%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $102 +$160 +157%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $62 −$38 -62%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 2 Australia? Jun 19 $22 −$16 -75%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $11 −$11 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $93 −$91 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $98 +$41 +42%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -92%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $10 −$8 -78%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $25 +$39 +160%
Brescia: Miriam Bulgaru vs Ane Mintegi Del Olmo Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 +$97 +473%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $14 −$14 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $36 −$35 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $182 +$104 +57%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $60 +$20 +32%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $61 −$3 -5%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $181 +$44 +24%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $81 +$55 +67%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $192 +$91 +48%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $61 −$60 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $27 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$4 +15%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $82 +$194 +237%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $172 −$171 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $133 +$39 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Toronto Tempo 59¢ $101 0m
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 BUY Under 60¢ $30 3m
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 31m
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? SELL Yes 26¢ $7 32m
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 2.5 SELL Under 80¢ $202 32m
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 74¢ $128 32m
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland O/U 0.5 SELL Over 41¢ $22 59m
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Morocco? SELL Yes 11¢ $22 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes 12¢ $26 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 57¢ $101 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland O/U 0.5 BUY Over 56¢ $30 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $152 1h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? SELL Yes 8¢ $11 3h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? SELL Yes 10¢ $14 3h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $4 3h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Over 72¢ $262 3h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 27¢ $102 3h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 22¢ $23 3h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 2 Australia? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 4h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 2 Australia? SELL Yes 2¢ $5 4h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $62 4h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $40 4h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 14¢ $11 4h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 8¢ $11 4h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 12¢ $17 4h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 2 Australia? BUY Yes 5¢ $11 4h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 45¢ $93 25h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 SELL Under 93¢ $91 27h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $139.65 · official $126.93 · 69 history records