Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:38:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
EA 0xea8a…badc crypto 49 markets active 1h ago coverage 408d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$26 (-0%) realized −$26 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate44%21W / 27L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$176per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 42% −$4
sports 31% −$30
economics 11% −$1
other 11% +$8
crypto 4% +$1
tech 1% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +32.0% +19.4% 50% 50% +1.6%
≤90d 7 -5.1% -14.2% 57% 14% -18.5%
all 48 -0.6% -10.1% 44% 2% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 2% -9.8%
10% -18.7% 2% -18.4%
15% -26.5% 2% -26.3%
20% -33.7% 2% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 90% · top 2 93% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% too few recent
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

408d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses21 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)48 / 49
History coverage408d
Avg bet$176
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? No 79¢ 78¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 08 $57 $0 -0%
Will Applied Aerospace & Defense's market cap be between $3.25B and $3 Jun 08 $14 +$9 +64%
Will Seyed Hossein Mousavian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 20 $45 $0 -0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on April 13? May 20 $12 $0 +0%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 20 $28 −$28 -98%
Will Solana dip to $20 March 30-April 5? Apr 11 $23 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $40 March 9-15? Mar 31 $17 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Februa Feb 05 $75 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $102,000 December 15-21? Feb 05 $12 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in January? Feb 05 $88 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 December 15-21? Jan 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.20 December 15-21? Jan 20 $10 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 20 $62 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 18 $56 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 17 $65 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $300 in November? Dec 17 $13 $0 +0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 24 $68 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October? Nov 24 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3,300 October 20-26? Nov 05 $10 $0 +3%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 20 $860 −$1 -0%
Will Zellnor Myrie win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 20 $850 −$1 -0%
Will PSV win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 16 $880 −$1 -0%
Will Tidjane Thiam win the 2025 Ivory Coast presidential election? Oct 16 $850 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September? Oct 16 $20 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 15 $850 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 15 $815 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in September? Oct 15 $11 $0 +0%
Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 15 $820 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 in August? Oct 15 $6 $0 +1%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 18 $60 $0 +0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 03 $63 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1500 in August? Sep 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in August? Sep 03 $8 $0 +0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 19 $50 $0 -0%
Will AUTO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Aug 11 $123 $0 -0%
Will Pirates win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electi Jul 25 $64 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $80 in June? Jul 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Jul 25 $8 $0 +0%
Will Matteo Jorgenson win the Tour de France 2025? Jun 25 $66 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $300 in May? Jun 25 $8 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in May? Jun 25 $11 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in May? Jun 25 $13 $0 +0%
Will Cătălin Cîrstoiu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? May 28 $220 $0 -0%
Will Eric Adams win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City? May 28 $215 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2025 World Series? May 23 $242 $0 -0%
Will Jack Doohan be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 23 $240 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly win the 2025 Italian Grand Prix? May 12 $272 $0 -0%
Will Francesca Muñoz win the Chilean presidential election? May 12 $267 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 79¢ $31 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL Yes $0 15d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $57 15d
Will Applied Aerospace & Defense's market cap be between $3.25B and $3 BUY No 60¢ $14 22d
Will Seyed Hossein Mousavian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes $0 35d
Will Seyed Hossein Mousavian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $45 35d
LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs BUY Team Vitality 43¢ $28 35d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on April 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $12 74d
Will Solana dip to $20 March 30-April 5? BUY No 100¢ $5 85d
Will Solana dip to $20 March 30-April 5? BUY No 100¢ $18 85d
Will Solana dip to $40 March 9-15? BUY No 100¢ $17 102d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Februa SELL Yes $0 139d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Februa SELL No 100¢ $75 139d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $88 145d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? SELL Yes $0 155d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? SELL No 100¢ $62 155d
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 100¢ $42 187d
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 December 15-21? BUY No 100¢ $2 187d
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 100¢ $14 187d
Will Bitcoin reach $102,000 December 15-21? BUY No 99¢ $12 187d
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 100¢ $56 187d
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 December 15-21? BUY No 100¢ $8 187d
Will XRP dip to $1.20 December 15-21? BUY No 100¢ $6 188d
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes $0 188d
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $65 188d
Will XRP dip to $1.20 December 15-21? BUY No 100¢ $4 188d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $0 211d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 100¢ $68 211d
Will Solana reach $300 in November? BUY No 100¢ $13 211d
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $859 246d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.77 · official $30.77 (match) · 131 history records