Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:17:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
EA 0xea87…1ad7 sports 500 markets active 1h ago coverage 98d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,523 (-2%) realized −$2,523 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate54%268W / 232L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$244per market
Trades / day12.0pace
Fees−$1,702est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$85
7 days+$331
14 days+$27
30 days−$582
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% −$943
other 14% −$2,458
crypto 1% −$402
world 0% −$96
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -10.6% -19.1% 57% 52% -3.5%
≤30d 90 -3.1% -12.4% 56% 49% -12.6%
≤90d 456 -5.0% -14.1% 53% 45% -12.5%
all 500 -5.6% -14.6% 54% 44% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 44% -12.2%
10% -22.8% 33% -20.6%
15% -30.2% 25% -28.3%
20% -37.1% 19% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -14% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$82 vs −$111 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,523
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses268 / 232
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$1,702
Open positions0
Markets (closed)500 / 500
History coverage98d
Avg bet$244
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 500 Trades
no open positions (166 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $101 +$25 +25%
England vs. Ghana: Draw at halftime? Jun 23 $101 +$10 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $204 −$104 -51%
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider Jun 22 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $102 +$131 +129%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $102 −$69 -67%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 21 $101 +$21 +20%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $101 +$95 +93%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $723 +$124 +17%
UD Almería vs. Málaga CF: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $593 +$127 +21%
Will UD Almería vs. Málaga CF end in a draw? Jun 20 $101 −$100 -99%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 7.5 Jun 20 $602 +$92 +15%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $603 +$103 +17%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $379 +$226 +60%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 19 $203 +$171 +84%
Set 1 Winner: Sabalenka vs Bartunkova Jun 19 $86 −$85 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $251 −$248 -99%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 19 $191 +$60 +31%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -97%
Set Handicap: Navarro (-1.5) vs Starodubtseva (+1.5) Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro Jun 17 $91 −$35 -38%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 17 $49 +$44 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -95%
Iraq vs. Norway: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $312 −$310 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $421 −$106 -25%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $143 +$281 +197%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $677 −$250 -37%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $341 +$49 +14%
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) Jun 15 $291 +$56 +19%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $241 +$51 +21%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $148 +$80 +54%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $92 +$62 +67%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $121 −$24 -20%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 15 $101 +$15 +15%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $553 −$550 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $101 +$26 +26%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $581 +$271 +47%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $242 +$6 +2%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $262 −$8 -3%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $202 +$57 +28%
Libema Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Sara Bejlek Jun 09 $282 +$18 +6%
Atlético Nacional vs. CDPJuniorFC: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $241 +$41 +17%
Ilkley: Kyrian Jacquet vs Toby Samuel Jun 08 $293 −$52 -18%
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Paula Badosa Jun 08 $241 +$56 +23%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Terence Atmane Jun 08 $222 +$13 +6%
Foggia: Leyre Romero Gormaz vs Tyra Caterina Grant Jun 07 $263 −$40 -15%
Maja Chwalinska vs. Mirra Andreeva: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $231 +$36 +16%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $162 +$66 +40%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $81 +$85 +105%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 69¢ $127 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 54¢ $101 1h
England vs. Ghana: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 65¢ $111 2h
England vs. Ghana: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 16¢ $49 29h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 32¢ $102 30h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 18¢ $52 30h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 34¢ $102 30h
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider BUY Diana Shnaider 52¢ $101 37h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 43¢ $102 44h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 14¢ $33 44h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 41¢ $102 45h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 65¢ $122 47h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 53¢ $101 47h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 85¢ $723 2d
UD Almería vs. Málaga CF: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 82¢ $593 3d
Will UD Almería vs. Málaga CF end in a draw? BUY Yes 53¢ $101 3d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 86¢ $602 3d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 BUY Under 42¢ $102 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 85¢ $603 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $379 4d
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova SELL Nikola Bartunkova 90¢ $374 4d
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Nikola Bartunkova 48¢ $203 4d
Set 1 Winner: Sabalenka vs Bartunkova BUY Sabalenka 50¢ $86 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 54¢ $251 4d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 76¢ $191 5d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $7 6d
Set Handicap: Navarro (-1.5) vs Starodubtseva (+1.5) BUY Navarro 43¢ $51 6d
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro SELL Yulia Starodubtseva 29¢ $57 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1210 history records