Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:27:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
EA 0xea85…12dd world 90 markets active 0h ago coverage 50d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$407 (+25%) realized +$255 · open +$152
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate56%32W / 25L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day11.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$797now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$34
14 days+$84
30 days+$105
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 77% +$148
other 10% −$16
crypto 9% +$75
sports 2% +$2
politics 1% −$1
economics 0% $0
tech 0% +$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+3.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +47.8% +33.7% 92% 46% +54.8%
≤30d 35 +29.9% +17.6% 69% 43% +20.4%
≤90d 57 +14.4% +3.5% 56% 33% +4.7%
all 57 +14.4% +3.5% 56% 33% +4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.5% 33% +4.7%
10% -6.4% 26% -5.3%
15% -15.4% 23% -14.4%
20% -23.7% 21% -22.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +22% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$4 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.87 per $1 lost it wins $1.87
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$797
Realized+$255
Unrealized+$152
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses32 / 25
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions33
Markets (closed)57 / 90
History coverage50d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 33 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 71¢ 100¢ $396 $559 +$163 (+41%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 80¢ 86¢ $52 $56 +$4 (+8%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 71¢ 100¢ $28 $40 +$11 (+40%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 97¢ 100¢ $24 $25 +$1 (+3%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 93¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+2%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $15 $16 +$0 (+2%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 89¢ 83¢ $14 $14 −$1 (-7%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 83¢ 81¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-2%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 78¢ 88¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+12%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 91¢ 96¢ $7 $8 +$0 (+5%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Yes 42¢ 28¢ $11 $8 −$4 (-32%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 53¢ 38¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-29%)
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 17, 2026? Yes 66¢ 42¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-37%)
Will Spencer Pratt concede by June 15? Yes 52¢ 47¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-9%)
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30? Yes 6¢ 10¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+70%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 15¢ 12¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-19%)
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? Yes 34¢ 44¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+29%)
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 17, 2026? No 90¢ 58¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-35%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 47¢ 56¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+18%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 31¢ 36¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? No 81¢ 85¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Yes 54¢ 56¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? Yes 71¢ 72¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 17 $1 $0 +6%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -54%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 16 $2 $0 +10%
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $1 $0 +18%
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $1 $0 +10%
Will Trump post "Crime" on Truth Social this week? Jun 15 $2 $0 +8%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $15 +$3 +19%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $14 +$2 +12%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $7 +$27 +377%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 13 $1 $0 +5%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +59%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +150%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $97 +$52 +54%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 02 $2 +$1 +52%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $4 −$4 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $7 −$1 -14%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $45 +$24 +53%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $29 −$23 -80%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $15 +$14 +96%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $19 −$9 -46%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 30 $4 −$3 -65%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 28 $1 $0 +25%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? May 28 $2 +$2 +93%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $4 −$3 -85%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 26 $2 +$6 +321%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22? May 23 $1 $0 +18%
Trump kiss by May 31? May 23 $2 −$1 -46%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $1 $0 +2%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $2 $0 +2%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $24 $0 +2%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 21? May 22 $4 +$18 +445%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 16 $7 −$2 -28%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15? May 15 $27 −$5 -21%
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $1 +$1 +67%
Epstein suicide note released by May 8? May 15 $8 −$2 -28%
Will Trump say "Peng" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $4 $0 +1%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? May 12 $12 −$5 -39%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 11 $4 +$1 +30%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 09 $2 −$1 -42%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner May 01 $4 −$3 -72%
La Bisbal: Elena Pridankina vs Kamilla Rakhimova May 01 $6 +$7 +124%
Ostrava: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Maxim Mrva May 01 $2 −$1 -47%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? May 01 $6 $0 +0%
Ostrava: Raul Brancaccio vs Toby Samuel May 01 $6 +$2 +39%
Madrid Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Arthur Fils May 01 $3 −$2 -67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $1 22m
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? BUY No 59¢ $1 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 1h
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 83¢ $12 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 18¢ $13 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 3h
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 3 BUY Yes 6¢ $1 3h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 3h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 3h
Trump meets with Korean leader Lee Jae-Myung by June 30? BUY Yes 97¢ $1 3h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 56¢ $1 3h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 3h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 56¢ $1 4h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 4h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 4h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $4 4h
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 17, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $1 4h
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 79¢ $1 4h
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 4h
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 17, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $1 4h
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 4h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 5h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $146 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $121 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $797.03 · official $797.00 (match) · 1171 history records