Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:27:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EA 0xea85…0ef7 sports 72 markets active 2h ago coverage 42d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$405 (+19%) realized +$384 · open +$21
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate53%34W / 30L
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$393now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days−$89
14 days−$158
30 days−$135
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% +$509
sports 33% −$80
crypto 5% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -48.8% -53.7% 20% 20% -54.0%
≤30d 63 -10.7% -19.2% 52% 51% -21.9%
≤90d 64 -9.1% -17.7% 53% 52% +13.4%
all 64 -9.1% -17.7% 53% 52% +13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.7% 52% +13.4%
10% -25.6% 41% +2.5%
15% -32.8% 28% -7.4%
20% -39.4% 17% -16.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 76% · top 2 79% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +25% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +25% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$10 · ×2.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.3 per $1 lost it wins $2.3
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$393
Realized+$384
Unrealized+$21
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses34 / 30
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions8
Markets (closed)64 / 72
History coverage42d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $116 $162 +$46 (+40%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $87 $81 −$6 (-7%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $100 $79 −$21 (-21%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $33 $34 +$1 (+2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $15 $18 +$3 (+18%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+11%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $8 $4 −$4 (-50%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $4 +$2 (+77%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $77 +$12 +16%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $2 $0 -22%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $1 $0 -38%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $98 −$98 -100%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $91 −$88 -97%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $103 −$12 -11%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $82 +$16 +19%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $62 +$20 +32%
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $51 +$11 +21%
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 4.5 Jun 09 $40 +$11 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Argentina vs. Honduras: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $12 −$6 -50%
Brazil vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 06 $6 +$1 +20%
Will Luxembourg win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $11 −$7 -68%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $11 −$8 -79%
Belgium vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 06 $18 +$4 +21%
Vanuatu vs. Fiji: O/U 4.5 Jun 06 $8 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 06 $4 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 06 $11 −$11 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 211.5 Jun 06 $9 −$3 -31%
Paraguay vs. Nicaragua: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $13 +$6 +46%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $10 +$3 +28%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-04? Jun 05 $16 +$5 +28%
Will Novak Djokovic be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 04 $21 −$5 -23%
DR Congo vs. Denmark: Both Teams to Score Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Philippines vs. Guam: O/U 3.5 Jun 03 $1 +$1 +68%
Jakub Mensik vs. Joao Fonseca: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 02 $8 −$7 -87%
Jodar vs. Zverev: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 02 $11 −$11 -100%
Canada vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 0.5 Jun 02 $3 +$1 +29%
Colombia vs. Costa Rica: O/U 3.5 Jun 02 $30 +$5 +16%
Frances Tiafoe vs. Matteo Arnaldi: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 02 $20 +$7 +34%
Austria vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 01 $10 −$3 -28%
Jakub Mensik vs. Andrey Rublev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 May 31 $21 +$9 +44%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 31 $16 +$18 +108%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $28 −$11 -41%
Malmo FF vs. Halmstads BK: O/U 2.5 May 30 $10 +$7 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET May 29 $1 $0 +38%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. North Macedonia end in a draw? May 29 $6 +$8 +132%
Joao Fonseca vs. Novak Djokovic: Total Sets O/U 3.5 May 29 $8 +$4 +46%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 210.5 May 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET May 29 $1 $0 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET May 28 $11 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 27 $9 +$4 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET May 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET May 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET May 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $90 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $90 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 1.5 BUY Over 85¢ $77 3h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $75 3h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 5h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 5h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $119 4d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 4d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $120 5d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 62¢ $3 7d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes $3 7d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $91 7d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $91 7d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 78¢ $98 8d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 83¢ $82 8d
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 75¢ $62 9d
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $51 10d
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 77¢ $40 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 13d
Argentina vs. Honduras: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 14¢ $1 13d
Argentina vs. Honduras: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $5 13d
Argentina vs. Honduras: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 48¢ $5 13d
Argentina vs. Honduras: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 69¢ $7 13d
Brazil vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $7 13d
Brazil vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $6 13d
Will Luxembourg win on 2026-06-06? SELL No 20¢ $4 13d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-06? SELL Yes $2 13d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 32¢ $11 13d
Will Luxembourg win on 2026-06-06? BUY No 59¢ $11 13d
Belgium vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $18 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $392.72 · official $392.72 (match) · 178 history records