Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:53:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
EA 0xea83…e0cc sports 17 markets active 0h ago coverage 231d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$67 (+5%) realized +$45 · open +$22
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate62%10W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$86per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$160now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$81
7 days+$74
14 days+$74
30 days+$72
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% −$2
other 35% +$77
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +11.3% +0.7% 71% 57% -1.8%
≤30d 9 -13.4% -21.7% 56% 44% -2.0%
≤90d 9 -13.4% -21.7% 56% 44% -2.0%
all 16 -12.5% -20.9% 62% 50% -5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.9% 50% -5.6%
10% -28.4% 44% -14.6%
15% -35.3% 19% -22.9%
20% -41.7% 12% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 47% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$32 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

231d coverage
Net worth$160
Realized+$45
Unrealized+$22
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses10 / 6
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)16 / 17
History coverage231d
Avg bet$86
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 86¢ 100¢ $137 $160 +$22 (+16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $79 +$51 +65%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $121 +$8 +6%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $99 +$22 +23%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $118 −$116 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $172 +$45 +26%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $172 $0 -0%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $108 +$64 +59%
Birmingham: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Katie Swan Jun 02 $1 −$1 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $1 −$1 -98%
Manchester City vs. Bournemouth: O/U 3.5 Nov 02 $75 −$75 -100%
Will 1. FC Köln win on 2025-11-02? Nov 02 $73 +$3 +4%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-11-01? Nov 02 $55 +$17 +32%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-01? Nov 01 $43 +$12 +28%
Dodgers vs. Blue Jays Nov 01 $89 +$18 +21%
Pisa SC vs. Lazio: O/U 2.5 Oct 30 $18 +$7 +36%
Rolex Paris Masters: Lorenzo Sonego vs Daniil Medvedev Oct 30 $4 −$1 -25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 86¢ $138 18m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 39¢ $59 23m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 60¢ $79 23h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 60¢ $129 26h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 55¢ $121 27h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $99 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 48¢ $118 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $217 3d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $172 3d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 51¢ $171 3d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $172 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score SELL No 100¢ $172 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 62¢ $108 3d
Birmingham: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Katie Swan BUY Ajla Tomljanovic 24¢ $1 15d
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev BUY Rafael Jodar 28¢ $1 16d
Manchester City vs. Bournemouth: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 17¢ $75 228d
Will 1. FC Köln win on 2025-11-02? SELL Yes 100¢ $76 228d
Will 1. FC Köln win on 2025-11-02? BUY Yes 96¢ $73 228d
Will Liverpool win on 2025-11-01? BUY Yes 76¢ $55 229d
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-01? SELL Yes 100¢ $55 229d
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-01? BUY Yes 78¢ $43 229d
Dodgers vs. Blue Jays BUY Dodgers 89¢ $36 229d
Dodgers vs. Blue Jays SELL Blue Jays 38¢ $30 229d
Dodgers vs. Blue Jays BUY Blue Jays 17¢ $14 229d
Dodgers vs. Blue Jays SELL Blue Jays 23¢ $7 229d
Dodgers vs. Blue Jays BUY Blue Jays 18¢ $5 229d
Dodgers vs. Blue Jays SELL Dodgers 83¢ $17 229d
Dodgers vs. Blue Jays BUY Dodgers 71¢ $14 229d
Dodgers vs. Blue Jays SELL Blue Jays 30¢ $14 229d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $159.55 · official $159.55 (match) · 41 history records