Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:30:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EA 0xea83…7393 weather 1735 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$32 (+0%) realized +$407 · open −$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate61%952W / 604L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day225.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$963now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$382
7 days+$314
14 days+$407
30 days+$407
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$379
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1032 -2.9% -12.2% 59% 53% -6.5%
≤30d 1556 -1.1% -10.5% 61% 53% -6.2%
≤90d 1556 -1.1% -10.5% 61% 53% -6.2%
all 1556 -1.1% -10.5% 61% 53% -6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover225.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.5% 53% -6.2%
10% ← realistic here -19.1% 38% -15.2%
15% -26.9% 26% -23.4%
20% -34.1% 17% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$963
Realized+$407
Unrealized−$29
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses952 / 604
Open positions177
Markets (closed)1556 / 1735
History coverage12d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day225.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 177 History 1556 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 14? Yes 12¢ 100¢ $6 $52 +$46 (+731%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 14? Yes 22¢ 100¢ $6 $28 +$22 (+353%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 14? Yes 31¢ 99¢ $6 $19 +$13 (+221%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 15? No 90¢ 92¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? Yes 26¢ 45¢ $8 $14 +$6 (+73%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 15? Yes 28¢ 38¢ $10 $13 +$4 (+37%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on June 15? Yes 17¢ 22¢ $9 $11 +$2 (+26%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 16? No 78¢ 78¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 15? No 89¢ 96¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 15? Yes 38¢ 54¢ $7 $10 +$3 (+41%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 15? No 70¢ 91¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+30%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 15? No 53¢ 56¢ $9 $10 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 15? No 87¢ 90¢ $9 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 16? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 15? No 59¢ 62¢ $9 $10 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 14? No 59¢ 99¢ $6 $9 +$4 (+68%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 15? No 66¢ 64¢ $10 $9 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 15? No 82¢ 81¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 15? No 84¢ 96¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+14%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 15? No 58¢ 56¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 15? No 70¢ 68¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on June 15? No 86¢ 96¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 16? No 68¢ 66¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? No 88¢ 98¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C or below on June 16? Yes 51¢ 48¢ $10 $9 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 15? Jun 14 $3 +$3 +92%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 14 $6 +$3 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 66-67°F on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$2 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +64%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 14 $6 +$3 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 +$4 +64%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 +$11 +178%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 14? Jun 14 $7 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +61%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 14 $6 +$3 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 +$1 +35%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $7 +$3 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 +$17 +732%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 68-69°F on June 14? Jun 14 $6 +$2 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 70-71°F on June 14? Jun 14 $6 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 14? Jun 14 $8 +$4 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 14 $6 +$3 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 14 $6 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 +$1 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $7 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 +$7 +163%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 14 $7 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 +$3 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$2 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $7 +$2 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $7 +$4 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 +$4 +244%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +56%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $7 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 +$5 +88%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 +$13 +203%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 +$3 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +61%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +52%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 15? Jun 14 $10 +$2 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $7 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 +$3 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 14 $6 +$1 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 +$24 +244%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 +$3 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $7 +$5 +75%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 +$2 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$6 +132%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 +$1 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 16? BUY No 78¢ $11 1m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 63¢ $4 2m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $5 21m
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $9 43m
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 66-67°F on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $7 43m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $9 59m
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on June 14? SELL Yes 100¢ $17 1h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 16? BUY No 68¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 16? BUY No 68¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 16? BUY No 68¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 16? BUY No 68¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 73¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 67¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 88¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY No 86¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 14? SELL Yes 100¢ $19 2h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 16? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 16? BUY Yes 13¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 30¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 15? BUY No 66¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 28¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 68-69°F on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 70-71°F on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $7 2h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $13 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June SELL No 100¢ $9 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $962.99 · official $959.07 (match) · 3500 history records