Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:51:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EA 0xea82…4968 other 86 markets active 1h ago coverage 397d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate15%13W / 72L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$72now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$5
14 days+$6
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$3
politics 24% −$5
sports 19% +$3
culture 6% $0
economics 5% $0
world 3% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +4.1% -5.8% 50% 0% -5.8%
≤30d 4 +2.2% -7.5% 75% 0% -7.5%
≤90d 4 +2.2% -7.5% 75% 0% -7.5%
all 85 -6.7% -15.6% 15% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -23.7% 0% -18.3%
15% -31.0% 0% -26.2%
20% -37.8% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×3.06 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

397d coverage
Net worth$72
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses13 / 72
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)85 / 86
History coverage397d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 85 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 100¢ 99¢ $72 $72 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $66 +$6 +8%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $67 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $63 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 03 $66 $0 +0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 26 $66 $0 -0%
Will Cardi B perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Feb 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 10 $137 $0 -0%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 29 $61 +$1 +1%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 29 $2 $0 -3%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 26 $1 $0 -33%
Will Burnley win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 26 $137 $0 -0%
Israel strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? Jan 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 24 $68 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 21 $133 $0 -0%
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 19 $131 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 18 $142 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair? Jan 17 $65 $0 -0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 16 $1 $0 -20%
Will Wolves win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 16 $67 −$1 -1%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 14 $67 $0 -0%
Will Slavia Pragu win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 11 $66 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 09 $67 $0 -0%
Will Olivia Rodrigo release an album in 2025? Jan 05 $68 $0 +0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 01 $68 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Dec 25 $7 $0 +1%
Will Trump release more Epstein files by December 26? Dec 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 24 $60 $0 -0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 22 $68 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Dec 18 $70 $0 +0%
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 16 $69 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 13 $70 $0 +0%
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 09 $68 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 06 $69 $0 -0%
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 03 $68 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by November 30? Dec 01 $69 $0 +0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 28 $137 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 20 Nov 25 $69 $0 +0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 21 $70 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win on 2025-11-18? Nov 19 $69 +$1 +1%
Will the Cleveland Browns win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 14 $71 $0 -1%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 12 $68 $0 -0%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? Nov 08 $141 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $2 $0 -10%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 01 $69 $0 -0%
Will Captain America: Brave New World be the top grossing movie of 202 Oct 30 $140 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 30 $3 $0 -8%
Will PSV win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 21 $71 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 20 $71 $0 -0%
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 19 $1 $0 -50%
Will Sunderland win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 17 $1 $0 -33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 100¢ $72 1h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY No 92¢ $66 2d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $67 3d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $67 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $63 14d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 100¢ $66 20d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $64 114d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $64 128d
Will Cardi B perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? BUY No 0¢ $1 131d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $65 131d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $66 141d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 143d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 144d
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 99¢ $61 145d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 145d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 146d
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 146d
Will Burnley win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $67 146d
Will Burnley win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $67 147d
Israel strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 147d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $67 147d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $68 148d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $65 151d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $65 152d
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 153d
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $67 153d
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $67 154d
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 154d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 154d
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 155d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $71.60 · official $71.60 (match) · 332 history records