Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:41:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EA 0xea81…0ce0 other 52 markets active 1h ago coverage 605d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate16%8W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$114per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$5
30 days+$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 81% −$15
other 14% +$4
economics 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
sports 1% +$14
culture 0% $0
tech 0% +$1
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-4.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 21 +13.3% +2.5% 19% 14% -4.8%
≤90d 39 +7.2% -3.1% 15% 8% -8.1%
all 51 +5.3% -4.7% 16% 6% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.7% 6% -9.5%
10% -13.9% 6% -18.1%
15% -22.2% 6% -26.1%
20% -29.8% 4% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$0 · ×6.18 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

605d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses8 / 43
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)51 / 52
History coverage605d
Avg bet$114
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $42 $42 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 17 $10 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $13 $0 -0%
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $13 $0 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $13 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 11 $14 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $8 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $15 $0 -0%
Will Niger win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $13 +$5 +40%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $13 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $11 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $10 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $14 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in May? Jun 02 $41 $0 +0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $59 $0 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $10 $0 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi May 30 $10 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $12 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $10 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 18 $61 $0 -0%
Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 18 $5 +$6 +119%
Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros May 18 $7 +$8 +124%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $46 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 12 $49 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $46 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 07 $48 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $46 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $49 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $49 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $48 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $47 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $50 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $47 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 21 $51 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $50 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 20 $50 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $51 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $48 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Apr 10 $3 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in March? Apr 10 $5 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in February? Mar 05 $10 $0 +1%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 09 $9 +$1 +8%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 09 $9 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 19 $24 $0 -2%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 13 $1 $0 -10%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 03 $31 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $14 $0 -3%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 20 $10 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 11 $175 −$1 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 31 $1,850 −$5 -0%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Oct 27 $1,358 −$7 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $42 1h
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $10 8h
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $10 9h
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $13 28h
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $13 29h
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $13 2d
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $13 2d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $13 5d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $13 5d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $14 5d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $14 6d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $8 6d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $8 6d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $15 8d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $15 8d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $13 8d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $13 9d
Will Niger win on 2026-06-08? BUY No 71¢ $13 9d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $11 12d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $11 12d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 14d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 14d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $13 15d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $14 15d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 16d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 16d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $10 17d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $10 17d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi SELL No 99¢ $10 17d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi BUY No 100¢ $10 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.83 · official $41.83 (match) · 300 history records