Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T01:41:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EA 0xea7f…c019 other 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$87 (-5%) realized −$87 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate23%3W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$122per market
Trades / day11.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% −$87
sports 16% −$55
crypto 4% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-36.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -29.4% -36.1% 23% 15% -17.6%
≤30d 13 -29.4% -36.1% 23% 15% -17.6%
≤90d 13 -29.4% -36.1% 23% 15% -17.6%
all 13 -29.4% -36.1% 23% 15% -17.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.1% 15% -17.6%
10% -42.2% 15% -25.5%
15% -47.8% 8% -32.7%
20% -52.9% 0% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 96% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$29 · ×1.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$87
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses3 / 10
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage4d
Avg bet$122
Trades / day11.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $25 −$11 -44%
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $51 −$21 -41%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $120 +$32 +27%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $66 −$3 -4%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $61 −$34 -57%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $15 −$9 -58%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $390 −$40 -10%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $284 +$106 +38%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $51 −$44 -87%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $101 −$29 -29%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $348 −$84 -24%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $57 +$6 +10%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 24 $21 −$13 -61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 25¢ $14 30m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 47m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 45¢ $20 1h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 35¢ $30 1h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $5 1h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $46 10h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $96 28h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $56 31h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 57¢ $56 32h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 63¢ $64 32h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $63 33h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $66 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 27¢ $26 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 2d
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 20¢ $6 2d
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $5 2d
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 3d
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 97¢ $131 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 88¢ $39 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 52¢ $31 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 63¢ $149 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 81¢ $390 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $148 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 99¢ $49 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 98¢ $193 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $90 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 71¢ $152 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 71¢ $41 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 50 history records