Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T06:45:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
EA 0xea7f…759c world 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$85 (+16%) realized +$69 · open +$16
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%4W / 14L
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$102
7 days+$61
14 days+$59
30 days+$59
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% −$37
sports 31% +$165
other 16% −$52
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-41.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -37.8% -43.7% 25% 25% +2.2%
≤30d 18 -35.8% -41.9% 22% 22% +1.5%
≤90d 18 -35.8% -41.9% 22% 22% +1.5%
all 18 -35.8% -41.9% 22% 22% +1.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.9% 22% +1.5%
10% -47.4% 22% -8.2%
15% -52.5% 22% -17.1%
20% -57.2% 22% -25.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 79% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -54% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$9 · ×5.23 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.49 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized+$69
Unrealized+$16
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses4 / 14
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions5
Markets (closed)18 / 23
History coverage8d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 100¢ $6 $25 +$19 (+316%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 15¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-10%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-4%)
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $6 $6 −$0 (-7%)
Will Bad Bunny have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $19 +$45 +236%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 16 $41 +$32 +79%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $73 +$96 +130%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $239 −$25 -10%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 11 $10 +$6 +60%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will "Probably" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the w Jun 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 08 $3 $0 -5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 08 $6 −$2 -34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $6 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $14 1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 55¢ $41 12h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $14 13h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 29¢ $19 13h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 45¢ $26 17h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $6 23h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $15 23h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 17¢ $3 25h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $8 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes $5 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes 14¢ $16 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 4d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? BUY Yes $2 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes $8 5d
Will "Probably" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the w BUY No 13¢ $6 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? BUY No $1 7d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 20¢ $25 7d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 19¢ $48 7d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No $3 7d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No $3 7d
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? BUY No $1 7d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes $3 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes $4 7d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 18¢ $49 7d
Will Bad Bunny have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners t BUY Yes $1 7d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes $3 7d
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? BUY No $2 7d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? BUY No $18 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.89 · official $57.89 (match) · 60 history records