Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T17:19:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0xea7f…f4f8

crypto · 4 markets active 1h ago

2.0score

+$5 +6%

TOTAL PnL · realized −$19 · open +$2

avoidriskycopy

~ RISKY ⚠ Small sample

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Net worth$22

Realized−$19

Unrealized+$2

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses1 / 1

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions2

Markets (closed)2 / 4

History coverage39d

Avg bet$22

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit75%

Chart Positions 2 History 2 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$19

7 days−$19

14 days−$19

30 days−$19

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Trump hug anyone at UFC Freedom 250?	Yes	50¢	61¢	$10	$12	+$2 (+22%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	67¢	66¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Jun 14	$52	−$22	-42%
Will Labour Party win the most seats in the House of Representatives i	Jun 14	$17	+$3	+16%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

crypto 58% −$22

politics 19% +$3

other 11% $0

sports 11% +$2

Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	BUY Down	16¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	BUY Up	84¢	$25	1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	67¢	$10	1h
Will Trump hug anyone at UFC Freedom 250?	BUY Yes	50¢	$10	1h
Will Labour Party win the most seats in the House of Representatives i	BUY Yes	86¢	$17	39d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-21.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	-13.4%	-21.6%	50%	50%	-34.7%
≤30d	2	-13.4%	-21.6%	50%	50%	-34.7%
≤90d	2	-13.4%	-21.6%	50%	50%	-34.7%
all	2	-13.4%	-21.6%	50%	50%	-34.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-21.6%	50%	-34.7%
10%	-29.1%	0%	-41.0%
15%	-36.0%	0%	-46.7%
20%	-42.3%	0%	-51.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.73 · official $21.73 (match) · 7 history records