Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T12:48:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
EA 0xea7d…a0bd other 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$37 (+2%) realized +$38 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate58%7W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$135per market
Trades / day8.2pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$399now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% +$266
sports 38% −$188
crypto 6% −$3
world 3% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-23.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -15.0% -23.1% 58% 50% -7.8%
≤30d 12 -15.0% -23.1% 58% 50% -7.8%
≤90d 12 -15.0% -23.1% 58% 50% -7.8%
all 12 -15.0% -23.1% 58% 50% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.1% 50% -7.8%
10% -30.4% 50% -16.7%
15% -37.2% 50% -24.7%
20% -43.3% 25% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 52% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -49% → late +19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$64 vs −$84 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$399
Realized+$38
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses7 / 5
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)12 / 13
History coverage3d
Avg bet$135
Trades / day8.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $400 $399 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? Jun 23 $101 +$7 +7%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $111 +$53 +48%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $212 +$104 +49%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $101 +$44 +44%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 Jun 22 $199 +$129 +64%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $112 −$110 -98%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $101 −$100 -99%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $151 −$151 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 20? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $101 +$53 +52%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 +$58 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $101 33m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $101 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $101 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 85¢ $101 4h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 9h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 9h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 21h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 28h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 4¢ $6 44h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 4¢ $0 44h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 4¢ $2 44h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 4¢ $0 44h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 4¢ $0 44h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 4¢ $0 44h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 4¢ $1 44h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 60¢ $199 44h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? BUY No 93¢ $101 44h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 80¢ $101 44h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 69¢ $101 44h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 49¢ $102 45h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $50 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 20? BUY No 64¢ $10 3d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 82¢ $151 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $398.84 · official $398.84 (match) · 37 history records